The Ukraine crisis is carrying on in much the same fashion it has been since it broke out in early 2014: for every gesture of diplomatic contrition, there are two moves on the ground pointing to further conflict. The most recent dovish overture comes in the form of a gas deal reached between Moscow and Kiev, one that will also ensure the flow of energy supplies to Western Europe over the coming winter. The deal calls for Ukraine to pay out two tranches of $3.1 billion by the end of the year, covering both its outstanding debts with Gazprom and the 4 billion cubic meters of gas it will need through next March. High levels of EU and IMF assistance will be necessary to help the nearly bankrupt government in Kiev cover the cost of the deal. Yet there are, as always, hawkish developments unfolding against the backdrop of this ostensible détente. Moscow is openly supporting the elections currently being held in separatist ‘people’s republics’ in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. T
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