ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

  Herrings and the Courts By   George Friedman  - July 1, 2024 Open as PDF Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on two cycles, one a 50-year socio-economic cycle, the other an 80-year institutional cycle. For the first time in history, both are coming full circle at the same time. To recap, the first institutional cycle, which established a federal government, began with the American Revolution and concluded with the Civil War, ending in 1865. The second institutional cycle, which established the federal government’s authority over the states, ran from the Civil War to World War II. We are now nearing the end of the third institutional cycle, which has expanded the federal government’s authority over the economy and society. All cycles are built to render the previous one obsolete. In WWII, U.S. power triumphed because of the knowledge of experts – including

  The Euro-American Shift By   George Friedman  - July 8, 2024 Open as PDF There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system. As the world evolves, so do these pressures. They normally affect countries one by one, but sometimes they can impact multiple countries at the same time. We are now in the midst of a transcontinental systemic crisis affecting many European countries as well as the United States. In these regions, the forces being brought to bear have resulted in a loss of confidence in the state and the cultural matrix. There is a culture war, focused on issues ranging from gender to the movement of people, driven by economic and political forces. Long-standing cultural norms are being restructured, a shift frequently overseen and endorsed by the state. The movement of people across borders brings with it diverse cultural values, poverty-driven crime and the difficult

  Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to Panama’s national migration service, in the first five months of 2024, 158,747 migrants crossed the dense, treacherous land bridge between South and Central America. Nearly 102,000 were Venezuelans. Thousands also came from Ecuador, Haiti and Colombia. These shifts reflect growing migratory pressures in countries of origin as well as the development of more sophisticated routes. But they heighten tensions between countries of origin and transit and receiving countries, which often lack resources to support large numbers of migrants.