ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Israeli Strategy towards the Syrian Crisis The current situation in Syria only confirms Israel’s belief that the Middle East is inherently unstable. Many Israeli settlers on the Golan Heights hope that eventually a new regime will come to Syria which will be ready to cede the Golan Heights to Israel. Perhaps this will also be an opportunity to make peace with Syria. For this reason, it is important to get the most accurate picture we can about Israel’s current actions towards Syria. At a first glance, they seem to be very confusing and mixed. As the Financial Times reported “Israeli leaders are watching events across the border with a blend of worry, hope and frustration”. This is because they are worried that Assad might make irrational moves or that the weapons might fall into terrorists' hands. In regards to its long-term strategy, Israel seems to be evaluating the following elements. Given that Israel depends on American financial support to uphold its security, it is cru...

By Scott Stewart Vice President of Analysis On Nov. 25, Boko Haram, an Islamist militant group from northern Nigeria, attacked a church in Jaji, Kaduna state, using two suicide bombers during the church's weekly religious service. The first bomb detonated in a vehicle driven into the church, and the second detonated approximately 10 minutes later, when a crowd of first responders gathered at the scene. About 30 people were killed in the attacks; the second blast caused the majority of the deaths. The incident was particularly symbolic because Jaji is the home of Nigeria's Armed Forces Command and Staff College, and many of the churchgoers were senior military officers. In the wake of the Jaji attacks, media reports quoted human rights groups saying that Boko Haram has killed more people in 2012 than ever before. The group has killed roughly 770 people this year, leading many to conclude that Boko Haram has become more dangerous. However, it is important to look beyond ...

Asia Report N°241 11 Dec 2012 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS After a decade of separatist violence in Thailand’s Malay/Muslim-majority southern provinces, insurgent capabilities are outpacing state counter-measures that are mired in complacency and political conflict. While Bangkok claims to make a virtue of patience, more sophisticated and brutal insurgent attacks increase the death toll. Successive governments have opted to muddle through South East Asia’s most violent internal conflict, their responses hostage to outmoded conceptions of the state, bureaucratic turf battles and a bitter national-level political struggle. In 2012, a new security policy for the region acknowledged for the first time the conflict’s political nature and identified decentralisation and dialogue with militants as components of a resolution. But fulfilling this policy demands that Thai leaders depoliticise the South issue, engage with civil society, build a consensus on devolving political p...

EXECUITIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Within a decade, the Gulf of Guinea has become one of the most dangerous maritime areas in the world. Maritime insecurity is a major regional problem that is compromising the development of this strategic economic area and threatening maritime trade in the short term and the stability of coastal states in the long term. Initially taken by surprise, the region’s governments are now aware of the problem and the UN is organising a summit meeting on the issue. In order to avoid violent transnational crime destabilising the maritime economy and coastal states, as it has done on the East African coast, these states must fill the security vacuum in their territorial waters and provide a collective response to this danger. Gulf of Guinea countries must press for dynamic cooperation between the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), take the initiative in promoting security and...

The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market has grown sharply due to military purchases throughout the course of the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Lockheed Martin is banking on the UAV trend continuing despite the pending drawdown in those regions. George Barton, Lockheed Martin vice president of ship and aviation systems business development for the company's Mission Systems & Sensors (MS2) business, told  IHS Jane's that "time is definitely on the side of UAVs". "In the near term, companies like Lockheed Martin come up with innovative ideas on how to increase those capabilities while decreasing costs for the customer," Barton said on 6 December. Other industry executives have said they expect the drawdown in the Middle East and South Asia to bring about a correction in the UAV market. Chris Chadwick, president of Boeing's military aircraft business, said recently that Boeing analysts foresee "at least a 20% reduction...

By Geoff Fein 12/12/2012 The US Navy (USN) intends to conduct a live-fire assessment of an MQ-8B Fire Scout vertical take-off and landing unmanned air vehicle (UAV) armed with the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) in March 2013. The assessment is part of an urgent operational request to arm the MQ-8B with six APKWS. The plan is to deploy the UAV in the March-April 2013 time frame. The MQ-8B airframe is based on Schweizer's 333 airframe, which was rebranded as the Sikorsky S-333 in 1999. The navy is also in the midst of integrating Fire Scout aboard USS Perry-class frigates in response to an urgent operational need to support maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations, Captain Patrick Smith, programme manager for the navy and marine corps multimission tactical unmanned aerial system programme office, said during a 4 December briefing. Integration of Fire Scout ISR data onto a frigate is tied in three different ways, Capt Smith noted: Full...

By Reva Bhalla Vice President of Global Affairs The state of Israel has a  basic, inescapable geopolitical dilemma : Its national security requirements outstrip its military capabilities, making it dependent on an outside power. Not only must that power have significant military capabilities but it also must have enough common ground with Israel to align its foreign policy toward the Arab world with that of Israel's. These are rather heavy requirements for such a small nation. Security, in the Israeli sense, is thus often characterized in terms of survival. And for Israel to survive, it needs just the right blend of geopolitical circumstance, complex diplomatic arrangements and military preparedness to respond to potential threats nearby. Over the past 33 years, a sense of complacency settled over Israel and gave rise to various theories that it could finally overcome its dependency on outside powers. But a familiar sense of unease crept back into the Israeli psyche before a...

  The collapse of Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti's government became inevitable on December 8, when the technocratic leader made it clear to President Giorgio Napolitano that he would not be held hostage by the parties of the centre-right. As a result, Italy will go to the polls early, with national elections looking set to be held sometime in February. This also means that centre-right leader and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has just over two months to campaign against austerity measures and decry German leadership in European affairs. Monti will still be able to pass his government's budget this December -- the centre-right has committed itself to support it -- but that is about as much stability as Italians can expect. Monti's official resignation will take effect once the budget is passed.   Into the abyss?   It is not unreasonable to ask, therefore: "Is Italy falling into an abyss?" Indeed, this was the first question European C...