ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

WEEKLY UPDATE JANUARY 21, 2013 Controlling uncertainty The ECB's monthly bulletin for January 2013 includes an article on the relationship between uncertainty, confidence and economic performance. The basic finding should not come as much of a surprise. High uncertainty tends to lower confidence among consumers and investors; lower confidence tends to weaken economic performance. As with many articles in economics, the strength of this piece lies not so much in the novelty of the finding as in the elegance with which the authors demonstrate their empirical support. Nevertheless, the authors do add a wrinkle with the notion of 'uncertainty shocks' -- sudden events that confound the views of consumers and investors, with lasting consequences for economic performance. This addition is important because uncertainty is not only the result of unforeseen or unforeseeable developments, like the weather. To a certain extent, uncertainty in the markets -- as in all areas of human

Forms of abuse included hanging prisoners by their wrists and beating them with cables, a new report says. Last Modified: 20 Jan 2013 18:29 Afghan authorities were still torturing prisoners, such as hanging them by their wrists and beating them with cables, according to a UN report. More than half of the 635 detainees interviewed had been tortured, according to the report titled Treatment of Conflict-Related Detainees in Afghan Custody: One Year On, released on Sunday. The figure is higher than the UN found in its first report in 2011, when 24 percent of transferred detainees were tortured. In multiple detention centres, Afghan authorities leave detainees hanging from the ceiling by their wrists, beat them with cables and wooden sticks, administer electric shocks, twist their genitals and threaten to shove bottles up their anuses or to kill them, the report said. "Torture cannot be addressed by training, inspections and directives alone." - Georgette Gagnon, the head of human

At least eight people killed by suspected US drone strike in Marib province, including two known al-Qaeda fighters. Yemeni military officials have said eight people have been killed in two suspected US drone strikes in Abieda valley in central Marib province. Residents contacted by The Associated Press say that at least two of the eight people killed in Saturday evening's strikes were known al-Qaeda militants of Saudi nationality. They identified one as Ismail bin Jamil. They say at least three of the bodies were charred beyond recognition. Security officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to media. Residents spoke anonymously for fear of reprisal. The US has carried out dozens of suspected drone attacks against al-Qaeda in Yemen, which Washington considers the group's most active branch.

Gunmen and suicide bombers have attacked a Kabul police compound in the west of the Afghan capital. A gunbattle is ongoing between security forces and heavily armed assailants. "A group of terrorists, two or three or four, tried to enter the traffic police building, Mohammad Zahir, of the Kabul police, said on Monday. "Two of the bombers were shot dead at the entrance and one has likely entered the building and is shooting sporadically. Our security forces are in the area." Local police report at least four police and six civilians have been injured. A witness said the top floor of the building was on fire. He said the initial explosion "very very big -- it was massive", and was followed by several other explosions and gunfire. "There are firefighter trucks, ambulances and police all over the place. The gunfire comes from that direction and the building's top floors are on fire," he said. Al Jazeera's Jennifer Glasse, reporting from Kabul, sai

The United Nations Fund for Children has denounced the increase of violence in Syria, adding that children are paying a terrible price as the near two-year-old conflict drags on. "UNICEF condemns these latest incidents in the strongest terms, and once again calls on all parties to ensure civilians - and children especially - are spared the effects of the conflict," the UN agency said on Saturday. "A series of reports from Syria this week underlines the terrible price children are paying" in a conflict that has convulsed the country for 22 months and left more than 60,000 people dead, according to UN figures. Maria Calivis, UNICEF regional director for the Middle East and North Africa, said: "Media reports today [Friday] from the scene of mass killings in the village of Hasweya outside Homs said whole families were among the dead in horrific circumstances." "This is a children's refugee crisis. It's heartbreaking when we see these children arr

Dust plumes blew over Banghazi (Benghazi) in mid-January 2013. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on January 15, 2013, as plumes blew toward the north-northwest over the coastal city. Away from the coast, which enjoys a Mediterranean climate, the Libyan landscape consists largely of sand seas. Only about 1 percent of the land is arable, and dust storms rank among the country’s leading natural hazards. References CIA World Factbook. (2013, January 7) Libya. Accessed January 17, 2013.

The deep drought in the United States that has fueled wildfires, damaged crops, and caused near record-low water levels on the Mississippi River has lingered well into January. Though there has been some relief from a series of recent winter storms, a pair of satellites operated by NASA show that groundwater supplies continue to be unusually low in many parts of the country. The maps above combine data from the twin satellites of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) with other satellite and ground-based measurements to model the relative amount of water stored near the surface and underground between January 8 and January 14, 2013. The top map shows moisture content in the top 2 centimeters (0.8 inches) of surface soil; the bottom map shows the condition of groundwater in aquifers. The soil moisture map depicts short-term conditions, while the groundwater map offers a longer-term perspective. The wetness, or water content, of each layer is compared to the ave

An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe. Forecast high temperatures on Monday, Jan. 21, from the GFS computer model. Click to enlarge the image.  Credit: Weatherbell This phenomenon, known as a “ sudden stratospheric warming event ,” started on Jan. 6, but is something that is just beginning to have an effect on weather patterns across North America and Europe.  While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather