ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

UPDATE from Reuters French draft UN security council resolution would give Syria 15 days to make complete declaration of entire chemical arms program Draft would demand immediate UN inspections of all sites based on Syria’s chemical weapons declaration Would threaten Syria with further necessary measures in the event of failure to comply (via Reuters) Starting just 1 minute late, the President begab by unapologetically conjuring images of WWI and WWII and stuck to the line that "we know" Assad was responsible for killing his own people with Sarin. Then moved to fear-mongery over what Iran might do, adding that he was very much for strikes. But, in giving Congress the hot potato he knew decision would be difficult. The US military does not do 'pin pricks' and a "targeted" strike will send a message to Assad. While recognizing the need for a diplomatic solution, Obama made it clear that those efforts would follow a military strike . But then,

When we sit back and listen to France’s President François Hollande banging out the reasons why the world needs to strike Syria and stop the al-Assad regime and we hear President Barack Obama of the USA trying to rally support from inside the country as to a possible missile attack on the already-war-torn country we might wonder why they are so dead set on it. There are many reasons that we could think of such as control of the region; ousting al-Assad would enable control of the country and the resources by the West, perhaps at a chance. But, that chance is pretty remote anyhow since the West prides itself on so-called democracy and how countries should have free elections and elected governments by the people for the people. Except the chances are that this will happen much later down the road. Before, there will only be greater strife and increased trouble for the Syrian people. The real reason might be more immediate. It certainly entails the need for war to increase the sale of ar

At the beginning of 2013, Stratfor said this would be the year that the deep, structural weaknesses in Europe and China would present the leaders of these two pillars of the international system with a painful reality: The short-term remedies implemented so far will not be enough to prevent greater instability down the line. Indeed, in the past quarter, Europe's leaders began a critical discussion on ways to address youth unemployment while grappling with existential questions on the costs and benefits of deepening European integration in order to manage the crisis. And as the third quarter begins, China is making painful moves to address major imbalances in its financial system amid slowing worldwide growth. Europe's crisis is still at a stage in which a deceptive calm will prevail in the street and in the financial markets. Softer deficit targets, a guarantee of European Central Bank intervention in sovereign markets, healthy tourism receipts from the still-sizable number of

By George Friedman In recent weeks I've written about U.S. President Barack Obama's bluff on Syria and the tightrope he is now walking on military intervention . There is another bluff going on that has to be understood, this one from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is bluffing that Russia has emerged as a major world power. In reality, Russia is merely a regional power, but mainly because its periphery is in shambles. He has tried to project a strength that that he doesn't have, and he has done it well. For him, Syria poses a problem because the United States is about to call his bluff, and he is not holding strong cards. To understand his game we need to start with the recent G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia. Putin and Obama held a 20-minute meeting there that appeared to be cold and inconclusive. The United States seems to be committed to some undefined military action in Syria, and the Russians are vehemently opposed. The tensions showcased at the G-20 be