ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Summary Recent statements by French and Portuguese officials signal that the governments of EU members are willing to push for a relaxation of their deficit targets and ignore agreements with Brussels, even after some of them already received softer targets this year. The European Union is likely to give in once more to stave off social unrest and also because of its inability to apply effective penalties. This will hurt the European Union's already-weak credibility, limiting its ability to operate as a cohesive bloc. Analysis Lisbon will ask the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to relax Portugal's 2014 budget deficit goal to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product from 4 percent, Portuguese Deputy Prime Minister Paulo Portas said Sept. 11. The same day, Economy Minister Antonio Pires de Lima said that the country would not achieve enduring economic growth if taxation remains at current levels. Portugal's deficit targets were already relaxed in Ma

The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Nimitz CSG with Carrier Air Wing 11 embarked is conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR. The USS Harry S Truman CSG with Carrier Air Wing 3 embarked is underway in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR supporting maritime security

Summary The U.S.-led military strike in Syria has been delayed by Russia's diplomatic proposal, but Syria knows the danger is not over. With the threat still looming, Syria is trying to limit the scope of a potential strike by ensuring that its northern neighbor, Turkey, is sufficiently intimidated so it remains on the sidelines of the operation. The most effective way for Syria to accomplish this is through the Kurds. To that end, Syrian President Bashar al Assad has already launched a diplomatic effort to make peace with the Kurdish leadership in both Syria and northern Iraq in order to drive a wedge between Ankara's relations with the Kurds. At the same time, he is trying to forge an alliance with Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria against Sunni rebels. There are limits to al Assad's strategy, but the move comes at an opportune time since Ankara is seeing its own peace negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Turkey derail. Analysis Omer Ose, a Kur

By Scott Stewart The Cosco Asia, a Chinese-owned, Panamanian-flagged container ship, reportedly came under attack as it transited the Suez Canal in the early afternoon Aug. 31. Egyptian authorities said they have arrested three suspects believed to have been involved in the attack, which reportedly occurred approximately halfway between Port Said and Ismailia. The suspects are thought to be affiliated with a militant group based in Bir Rummana in the northern Sinai Peninsula. There have been conflicting reports as to the weapons used in the attack, with a machine gun and rocket-propelled grenades being mentioned. The head of the Suez Canal Authority, Mohab Mamish, said the attack was intended to impact the flow of traffic in the canal, but was "completely unsuccessful," adding that the attack resulted in no damage to the ship or its cargo. The attack comes as the Egyptian military is in the midst of a campaign to crack down on militancy in the Sinai. Jihadist militants i

Summary Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a two-part series on Russia's attempts to strike a major natural gas supply deal with China. Oil deals have thus far dominated Russia and China's energy relationship, but now its focus is shifting toward the more complicated sector of natural gas. Russia wants to diversify its energy exports away from Europe -- a feat it has already accomplished with oil. Meanwhile, China's demand for natural gas is growing, and Beijing is looking to increase imports from multiple suppliers and via multiple routes. Analysis The past two weeks have been particularly busy for Russia and China as they discuss energy deals. Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin traveled to China and struck a series of deals on behalf of Russian oil giant Rosneft, of which he is a board member. In June, the two sides agreed to a $270 billion oil deal under which Russia, starting in 2015, will export 300,000 barrels per day to C

At a time when the United States and Europe are focused on Russia's position in Syria, Moscow has also been making significant moves much closer to its periphery in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of representatives from the Visegrad Group expressed "outrage" over increased pressure from Russia on the countries of the European Union's Eastern Partnership initiative not to sign trade and association agreements with the European Union. What these two groups have in common is that all of their members were once part of the Soviet umbrella. The Visegrad Group consists of ex-satellites Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while the Eastern Partnership consists of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The former are all members of the European Union and NATO, while the latter are not. Each of these states has complicated relationships with both Russia and Europe. The Eastern Partnership program was designed to bring the latter g

UPDATE from Reuters French draft UN security council resolution would give Syria 15 days to make complete declaration of entire chemical arms program Draft would demand immediate UN inspections of all sites based on Syria’s chemical weapons declaration Would threaten Syria with further necessary measures in the event of failure to comply (via Reuters) Starting just 1 minute late, the President begab by unapologetically conjuring images of WWI and WWII and stuck to the line that "we know" Assad was responsible for killing his own people with Sarin. Then moved to fear-mongery over what Iran might do, adding that he was very much for strikes. But, in giving Congress the hot potato he knew decision would be difficult. The US military does not do 'pin pricks' and a "targeted" strike will send a message to Assad. While recognizing the need for a diplomatic solution, Obama made it clear that those efforts would follow a military strike . But then,

When we sit back and listen to France’s President François Hollande banging out the reasons why the world needs to strike Syria and stop the al-Assad regime and we hear President Barack Obama of the USA trying to rally support from inside the country as to a possible missile attack on the already-war-torn country we might wonder why they are so dead set on it. There are many reasons that we could think of such as control of the region; ousting al-Assad would enable control of the country and the resources by the West, perhaps at a chance. But, that chance is pretty remote anyhow since the West prides itself on so-called democracy and how countries should have free elections and elected governments by the people for the people. Except the chances are that this will happen much later down the road. Before, there will only be greater strife and increased trouble for the Syrian people. The real reason might be more immediate. It certainly entails the need for war to increase the sale of ar