ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Summary Editor's Note: This is the second installment of a two-part series on the relationship between Central Asia and Afghanistan and the expected effects of the U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan on Central Asian security. Click here for Part 1. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan reversed the Taliban's takeover in many parts of the country. The resulting geographic shift in support for militant groups led to a degradation of Central Asian militants' capabilities. However, the resurgence of the Taliban after the U.S. drawdown in 2014 could increase volatility in the region. The links between Central Asia and Afghanistan -- particularly northern Afghanistan -- can be expected to intensify in the coming years. This will have important political and security implications for the region and beyond. Analysis The Taliban's series of successes ended when the United States invaded Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks by al Qaeda. The U.S. invasion, facilitated by the supp

Summary An attack over the weekend by Somali militant group al Shabaab on an upscale shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya, is the largest such act attributed to the group in more than three years and is likely the result of shifting intentions on the part of its leadership after a tumultuous period of infighting. The attack on the Westgate Mall --- which began around noon on Sept. 21 and has reportedly left more than 70 people dead -- will likely trigger retaliatory strikes by Kenyan security forces inside al Shabaab strongholds in neighboring Somalia as well as riots or reprisals against Somalis living in the Eastleigh district of Nairobi. More than 48 hours from the start of the attack, several gunmen remain barricaded in the mall, and Kenyan security forces backed by foreign advisers are attempting to bring the situation under control. Al Shabaab has not successfully carried out an attack of this magnitude since 2010, when suicide bombers sent by the group killed 74 people in Kampala,

Major assault launched to free hostages held by al-Shabab fighters in mall where at least 68 people have been killed. Heavy gunfire has been heard coming from inside Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall as security forces launch an assault against al-Shabab fighters holding hostages inside. Kenyan security forces claimed on Sunday to have rescued most of the hostages, but an unknown number remain trapped inside. Armed men belonging to the Somali group had stormed the Westgate shopping centre on Sunday using grenades and assault rifles. The attack left at least 68 people dead and more than 150 wounded, according to the Red Cross. Col. Cyrus Oguna, a military spokesman, told Al Jazeera that most of the hostages had been released, though he did not provide an exact number. "Most of them were dehydrated and suffering from shock," Oguna said, adding that four Kenyan soldiers were injured in the rescue operation. Al-Shabab spokesman Abu Omar talks to Al Jazeera about t

Summary The upcoming joint military drills between Russia and Belarus will be Moscow's latest demonstration to its periphery and to the West that it remains a viable power in the region. The two countries will conduct their Zapad exercises from Sept. 20-26, the first time since such drills have been held since 2009. These exercises are significant from both a military and political perspective, and are occurring at a time when tensions are rising between Russia and Belarus on one side and Poland and the Baltic states on the other. The Zapad drills, combined with NATO's Steadfast Jazz drills to be held in the Baltic states in November, highlight the security and military pressures in the region, which have steadily grown in recent years. Analysis The last Zapad exercises were held in September 2009 and involved a total of 15,000 Russian soldiers and navy servicemen, as well as 6,500 Belarusian troops. The equipment deployed included tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and a

The European Union announced Sept. 17 that sanctions against the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corp. , whose diamonds have long buoyed President Robert Mugabe's regime, will be lifted. The decision to lift the sanctions on the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corp. was driven by several countries in pursuit of various national interests. Belgium, for example, has been the EU member most ardently in favor of removing the restrictions, likely because it has long been a global center for the diamond cutting and polishing trade. The country may be hoping to gain an upper hand in the market for Zimbabwean diamonds, the trade of which, despite the sanctions, has continued heavily in several global cutting centers, from Europe to India to Israel. The push to ease sanctions was also in line with the broader goal in the West, including the United States and the United Kingdom, of engaging the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front in a more productive manner. The European Union likely r

Analysis Editor's Note: In light of the recent attack on a shopping mall in Nairobi by militants with alleged links to al Shabaab, Stratfor is republishing an Aug. 27 analysis on the tactical shifts taking place within the group as its leadership struggles to manage limited resources. Look for further situational reports and analysis on the ongoing developments in Nairobi. As Somali security forces continue expanding their reach, al Shabaab has remained a capable force that controls limited territory and conducts operations in areas of southern Somalia. Though the militant group continues its insurgency against government forces and African Union peacekeepers, it has changed the way it conducts attacks. These changes emerged after the so-called "Godane coup" in June, when al Shabaab supreme leader Abu Zubayr, also known as Ahmad Abdi Godane, removed dissident leaders in order to tighten his control of the group. Tactical shifts could signal a change in the management

The videos presented by the US Intelligence Community as evidence have staged scenes. Simple observations of the videos can verify this. This is exactly what a recent and modest study did. A detailed independent  report by Mother Agnes Mariam de la Croix and the International Support Team for Mussalaha in Syria (ISTEAMS) makes some important observations about what happened in the Damascene suburb of East Ghouta on August 21, 2013. The independent ISTEAMS study contradicts the assertions of the Obama Administration and the entire US Intelligence Community—a gargantuan network of sixteen different intelligence agencies that includes the standalone Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the US Depart of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), and the Pentagon’s National Security Agency (NSA)—through simple observations of the video material that has been put forward as evidence by the United States. The ISTEAMS report does not deny that chemical weapons were used or that innoce

Somewhere in the Lester B. Pearson Building, Canada’s foreign affairs headquarters, must be a meeting room with the inscription “The World Should Do as We Say, Not As We Do” or perhaps “Hypocrites ‘R Us.” With the Obama administration beating the war drums, Canadian officials are demanding a response to the Syrian regime’s alleged use of the chemical weapon sarin. Last week Prime Minister Stephen Harper claimed “if it is not countered, it will constitute a precedent that we think is very dangerous for humanity in the long term” while for his part Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird declared: “If it doesn’t get a response it’s an open invitation for people, for Assad in Syria, or elsewhere to use these types of weapons that they’ve by and large refrained from doing since the First World War.” The Conservatives also signed Canada onto a White House statement claiming: “The international norm against the use of chemical weapons is longstanding and universal.” While one may wish this were