ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan reversed the Taliban's takeover in many parts of the country. The resulting geographic shift in support for militant groups led to a degradation of Central Asian militants' capabilities. The Taliban's series of successes ended when the United States invaded Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks by al Qaeda. The U.S. invasion, facilitated by the support of the Northern Alliance and aided by Russia, was able to displace the Taliban and drive the movement from all major cities and towns within a few short months. The invasion included U.S. security support to the Central Asian states that, with help from Moscow, made their territory available for logistical and support bases for U.S. and subsequently NATO operations into Afghanistan. This allowed the Central Asian governments and security forces in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to destroy many militant cells from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other groups, such as H

Analysis The document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week. EUROPE Oct. 1: Cyprus celebrates its independence day. Oct. 1: In Hungary, the Financial Supervisory Authority will be merged into the Hungarian Central Bank. Oct. 1-7: An International Monetary Fund delegation will visit Serbia to assess the government's policies for 2014. Oct. 2: The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet in Paris. Oct. 3: Officials from Moldova, Transdniestria, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Union, Russia, the United States and Ukraine are expected to meet in Brussels for a further round of negotiations over the conflict regarding Transdniestria's status. FORMER SOVIET UNION Oct. 1: The next meeting of the EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Committee is expected to be held in Baku

Analysis Editor's Note: This is a three-part series on China's evolving strategic interests in Central Asia and in its own far northwest, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Part 1 looks at Xinjiang's history as a "buffer region" protecting China's core and linking it to Eurasia. This installment also examines recent efforts by Beijing to adapt the region's legacies to new uses. In mid-September Chinese President Xi Jinping rounded out a 10-day tour of Central Asia that included state visits to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek. At each stop, the new president made hearty pledges of financial support and calls for further diplomatic, security and energy cooperation. In Turkmenistan, Xi inaugurated a natural gas field. In Kazakhstan, he agreed to invest $30 billion in energy and transportation projects. In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, h

Bishkek/Brussels, 30 September 2013: Resource-led economic growth cannot mask the need for reforms in Kazakhstan as labour unrest, social divisions and a growing Islamist movement threaten the country’s stability. In its latest report, Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change , the International Crisis Group examines the prospects for stability as the era of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, 73, who has ruled for more than twenty years, comes to a close. His government has spurred the country’s role in the global energy sector but left it with weak political institutions, corruption, censored media and frequent infringement of human rights. Popular resentment is slowly growing. Consolidating the state’s stability, in particular through a smooth succession, is urgent in a situation of internal but also external challenges. The 2014 pullout of international forces from Afghanistan could well further weaken stability in Central Asia as a whole. Young Kazakhs, like their peers in neighbouring states,

By Paul Floyd Much of the investigation into the deadly Sept. 16 shooting at the Washington Navy Yard will focus on the background of shooter Aaron Alexis to uncover any missed red flags that could have prevented the attack. Alexis brought at least one firearm onto the post, which serves as a home for the chief of naval operations and various other command headquarters throughout the Navy and Marine Corps, and opened fire, ultimately wounding eight and killing 12 before being shot down by responding security personnel. The death toll makes this incident the second-deadliest military installation shooting in U.S. history after the Fort Hood shooting perpetrated by U.S. Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan in 2009. In a city overlaid with multiple law enforcement agencies and overlapping jurisdictions, the FBI quickly assumed the lead in the investigation, taking the case away from the U.S. Naval Criminal Investigative Service. This suggests terrorism was suspected and has not been entirely ruled

By Scott Stewart The prolonged armed assault launched against Nairobi's Westgate Mall by al Shabaab gunmen has brought much attention to the group and the tactic it has employed. When looking at the Nairobi attack, however, it is important to understand that al Shabaab is not some new entity, armed assaults are not a new tactic and the Westgate Mall attack is not an indication that the group poses some sort of deadly new transnational threat. Al Shabaab has a long history of insurgent and terrorist operations in the region, and it has long possessed the ability to conduct such an attack in Nairobi. What the Westgate Mall attack truly reflects is a change in intent on behalf of al Shabaab's leadership, rather than a change in the group's capability. This change of intent was a result of changes in the group's strategic footing in Somalia. Al Shabaab While the world's attention has just now been drawn to al Shabaab, it is not by any means a new militant entity in Eas

Actions by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham are fueling discord among the rebel groups fighting in Syria . The group said Sept. 23 that its takeover of Azaz, a town near the Bab al-Salam border crossing with Turkey that had been held by Free Syrian Army rebels, on Sept. 20 was motivated by the Free Syrian Army's desire to install democracy in Syria and create close ties to the West. Rebel infighting in Syria is not new. Indeed, the disparate natures of the rebel groups have ensured considerable friction between the groups related to conflict over power, territory, resources and ideology. With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, however, rebel infighting has gradually intensified and has measurably affected the broader rebel fight against the Syrian regime . On occasion over the past few months, rebel units from various factions have elected to leave the front line fighting against government forces to protect their territory against other encroaching reb

Violent protests against the Sudanese government that began Sept. 22 in response to a government decision to cut fuel subsidies continued following noon prayers on Sept. 27. While previous protests in Sudan have been limited mainly to Khartoum and its environs, the current round of demonstrations has expanded beyond the capital and has reached a higher level of violence than prior cases of similar unrest. On Sept. 27, the heaviest protests were witnessed early in the day in the city of Medani, 160 kilometers (100 miles) southeast of Khartoum, where protests originally erupted on Sept. 22. Ahead of Friday prayers, the Sudanese government reinforced security in the capital by airlifting military forces from across Sudan into Khartoum overnight. These forces have deployed along the main bridges, around the presidential palace and main mosques, as well as in areas near the international airport in south Khartoum that have seen large protests over the past few days. The response of the