ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Analysis  For centuries, geography and an abundance of domestic resources limited China's need to seek material inputs and project power far beyond its borders. Over the past two decades, however, this dynamic began to break down as China's demand for energy and raw materials outstripped its existing production capacity. As a result, Chinese manufacturers, real estate developers and other businesses found themselves sourcing an increasing share of their energy supplies from overseas, dramatically expanding the Chinese economy's exposure to political and economic forces far beyond the government's control. China has never been more vulnerable -- economically, socially and politically -- to supply disruptions overseas. At the same time, China's supply-demand imbalance has compelled radical changes in the geography and logistics of domestic Chinese resource industries. Most notable has been the rapid migration of energy and raw materials production bases from China...

At the beginning of the year, we outlined how U.S. foreign policy increasingly would be defined by its restraint as the United States attempts to reorient its priorities away from the Middle East. At the same time, we noted that the Syrian chemical weapons issue would be the wild card that would challenge this policy of restraint and compel the United States to cobble together a coalition in haste. That forecast materialized in the third quarter, with the United States trying -- and failing -- to build a coalition for an intervention that it was not particularly enthused about. Both Iran and Russia were quick to seize on the opportunity, and out of the diplomatic fog emerged two aggressive negotiating tracks that will feature prominently in the final months of 2013. Related Links Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2013 Stratfor's Second Quarter Forecast 2013 Stratfor's Third Quarter Forecast 2013 While both Iran and the United States are serious about pursuing a dialogue, the trans...

The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan reversed the Taliban's takeover in many parts of the country. The resulting geographic shift in support for militant groups led to a degradation of Central Asian militants' capabilities. The Taliban's series of successes ended when the United States invaded Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks by al Qaeda. The U.S. invasion, facilitated by the support of the Northern Alliance and aided by Russia, was able to displace the Taliban and drive the movement from all major cities and towns within a few short months. The invasion included U.S. security support to the Central Asian states that, with help from Moscow, made their territory available for logistical and support bases for U.S. and subsequently NATO operations into Afghanistan. This allowed the Central Asian governments and security forces in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to destroy many militant cells from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other groups, such as H...

Analysis The document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week. EUROPE Oct. 1: Cyprus celebrates its independence day. Oct. 1: In Hungary, the Financial Supervisory Authority will be merged into the Hungarian Central Bank. Oct. 1-7: An International Monetary Fund delegation will visit Serbia to assess the government's policies for 2014. Oct. 2: The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet in Paris. Oct. 3: Officials from Moldova, Transdniestria, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Union, Russia, the United States and Ukraine are expected to meet in Brussels for a further round of negotiations over the conflict regarding Transdniestria's status. FORMER SOVIET UNION Oct. 1: The next meeting of the EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Committee is expected to be held in Baku...

Analysis Editor's Note: This is a three-part series on China's evolving strategic interests in Central Asia and in its own far northwest, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Part 1 looks at Xinjiang's history as a "buffer region" protecting China's core and linking it to Eurasia. This installment also examines recent efforts by Beijing to adapt the region's legacies to new uses. In mid-September Chinese President Xi Jinping rounded out a 10-day tour of Central Asia that included state visits to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek. At each stop, the new president made hearty pledges of financial support and calls for further diplomatic, security and energy cooperation. In Turkmenistan, Xi inaugurated a natural gas field. In Kazakhstan, he agreed to invest $30 billion in energy and transportation projects. In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, h...