ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Pump jacks in the Kurdish town of Derik, on the border with Turkey and Iraq, Nov. 25. (ACHILLEAS ZAVALLIS/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The prospect of revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran may add to tensions between those two countries and Saudi Arabia over export quotas. On Dec. 4, representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna to discuss a number of topics. OPEC is facing two challenges. First, OPEC's historically biggest consumer -- the United States -- is rapidly increasing its own domestic production. At the same time, OPEC must deal with plans to expand oil production envisioned both by Iraq and Iran, which could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. Ultimately, however, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand, and their energy thirst will determine the scale of the problem OPEC faces. Analysis OPEC was organized in the early 1960s by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela with the primary goal

Israeli Environmental Affairs Minister Amir Peretz (R) attends a meeting in Istanbul on Dec. 5. (OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary With the U.S.-Iranian rapprochement and a sectarian conflict brewing to its north in Syria, Israel will likely work closely with Turkey and Saudi Arabia in an attempt to secure its interests. Given that Israel has not normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, that track will probably be pursued behind the scenes. However, Israel can work much more robustly with Turkey, despite the rupture in relations since the 2010 flotilla incident. For its part, Turkish regional interests have been set back by the rise of jihadism in Syria and the eclipse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt -- events that have forced Ankara to adjust its attitude toward Israel. Analysis On Dec. 5, Israeli Environmental Affairs Minister Amir Peretz became the first Cabinet member to visit Turkey since bilateral relations took a plunge after the flotilla incident that left nine Turkish na

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni (C) arrives at Munyonyo resort Hotel in Kampala on Nov. 30, to attend the 15th Ordinary Summit of the East African Community Heads of State. (ISAAC KASAMANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Kenya is positioning itself to become the dominant power in the emerging East African Community, which includes Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi in addition to Kenya itself. On Nov. 30, the heads of state of the five member countries signed a monetary union protocol, the third of four steps that could lead to a politically unified East African Federation. As a regional export and financial hub, Kenya has been fundamental to this process. However, Nairobi wants to reinforce its position as a gateway into East Africa and wield greater political power within the community -- and ultimately, the federation. Analysis For the East African Community, a common currency makes sense, especially for Uganda and Kenya. Both countries are net importers, but there is an imbalan

French President Francois Hollande addresses the Franco-African Economic Conference in Paris on Dec. 4. (ERIC PIERMONT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary France wants to remain an influential player in Africa, particularly among its former colonies, but its wishes may surpass its ability. Speaking at the Franco-African economic forum on Dec. 4, French President Francois Hollande said he wants to double trade with Africa within five years. According to the president, such a deal could create some 200,000 jobs in France. However, Hollande's announcement takes place at a time when French exports are losing ground in Africa as a result of decreased competitiveness at market and increased presence from other players, most notably China. France may keep some of its political and economic prominence in Francophone Africa, where it can offer some of what its former colonies need -- namely, security and investment -- but its economic problems may prevent it from exerting its power across the contin

Lt. Gen. Liu Shou-Jen of the Taiwanese Air Force introduces a map of the contested air space above the East China Sea during a press conference in Taipei on Dec. 2. (Mandy Cheng/AFP/Getty Images) Summary U.S. Vice President Joe Biden returned from South Korea on Dec. 7, having also visited Japan and China during a week of diplomatic upkeep. Biden's trip was planned before China's Nov. 23 declaration of an air defense identification zone , or ADIZ, in the East China Sea, but the controversy over Beijing's move, while not the only topic discussed, dominated the vice president's trip. In Japan, Biden and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attempted to show a unified position over China's new zone, which overlaps with Japan's own air zone and, in particular, the Japanese-controlled Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, over which China claims sovereignty. The two leaders pledged to reject unilateral attempts by China to change the status quo in the region and agreed to oppose any threats

The MB's third Amazonas-class OPV, Araguari, was delivered from builders BAE Systems on 21 June. Source: IHS/Alex Pape Key Points A funding crunch has generated questions about the future of PROSUPER's frigate element and other large procurements Some notable acquisitions for the MB are nonetheless moving forward The Brazilian Navy (Marinha do Brazil - MB), despite budget constraints, has maintained some comprehensive investments intended to considerably improve its fleet power through acquisitions of ships, helicopters, missiles, armour, and other hardware. Along with safeguarding Brazil's natural resources and 3.5 million km 2 of maritime domain, the naval service is also working to expand its regional influence and become a more active player internationally - a position the government views as fitting for the world's sixth-largest economy. Accordingly, the navy implemented the PAEMB (Plano de Articulação e Equipamentos da Marinha do Brasil) modernisation effort as

Boko Haram attacked an air base in Maiduguri , the capital of the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, on Dec. 2. According to reports, more than 300 Boko Haram fighters attacked the base, reportedly riding trucks and an armored vehicle captured from the military, and attempted to destroy vehicles and infrastructure by using explosives, rocket-propelled grenades and fire. The attack was launched around 2:30 or 3 a.m., with firefights continuing for approximately five hours. Although Boko Haram has launched significant attacks before, operations by such large groups of militants have grown less frequent as ongoing Nigerian military operations have attempted to disrupt the militants' movements and staging. Nigerian security forces have been conducting ground operations meant to locate and destroy pockets of Boko Haram fighters. Therefore, this attack does not demonstrate a new capability for the militant group; rather, it highlights the ineffectiveness of Nigerian military eff

Anti-government protesters remove a barricade in Bangkok on Dec. 2. (LAM YIK FE/Getty Images) Summary The rapid escalation of anti-government protests in Thailand is a reminder of the many fault lines beneath the country's deeply polarized political landscape. Even if the unrest manages to unseat Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's popular government , the same political and economic problems that have repeatedly troubled the country could return under the next government. At a time when Thailand is attempting to change its regional role, its fragile political situation continues to threaten its relevance in the increasingly important region of Southeast Asia. Analysis The massive, weekslong protests in Thailand quickly descended from relatively peaceful to violent over the weekend. After protesters had occupied several state ministries and key business districts for four days, violence erupted in the suburbs of Bangkok on the evening of Nov. 30 between protesters and the Red