ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By George Friedman Israel has begun its withdrawal from Gaza. As with all other territorial withdrawals by Israel, such as that from Sinai or from Lebanon, the decision is controversial within Israel. It represents the second withdrawal from land occupied in the 1967 war, and the second from land that houses significant numbers of anti-Israeli fighters. Since these fighters will not be placated by the Israeli withdrawal -- given that there is no obvious agreement of land for an enforceable peace -- the decision by the Israelis to withdraw from Gaza would appear odd. In order to understand what is driving Israeli policy, it is necessary to consider Israeli geopolitical reality in some detail. Israel's founders, taken together, had four motives for founding the state. To protect the Jews from a hostile world by creating a Jewish homeland.
 To create a socialist (not communist) Jewish state.
 To resurrect the Jewish nation in order to re-assert Jewish identity in history.
 To create

A store in Lisbon advertises a liquidation sale in December 2013. (PEDRO NUNES/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Portugal has had its share of highs and lows the past three years. Between 2011 and 2013, the country experienced a sovereign debt crisis; the collapse of the center-left government led by Prime Minister Jose Socrates and its replacement by a conservative government led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho; the signing of a 78 billion-euro ($106 billion) bailout deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund; the arrival of international inspectors in charge of scrutinizing the Portuguese economy; and most notably, the application of painful economic reforms and austerity measures like other countries dealing with the ongoing European economic crisis . With Lisbon expected to end its bailout program by mid-May, 2014 promises to be as turbulent as every year since the start of the Portuguese crisis. Analysis As part of its bailout deal, Lisbon is expected to cut i

A Kyrgyz man casts his ballot in Bishkek in 2011. (VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Kyrgyzstan's upcoming local elections, combined with numerous ongoing issues in the country, are threatening to create further instability in an already tenuous political and security environment. Mayoral elections will be held in the key cities of Bishkek and Osh on Jan. 15, marking the first time that mayoral candidates were nominated by city governments rather than by the president. While the transfer of nomination is meant to make the process more democratic, it has also led to increased political friction as rival candidates jockey for favor. External powers with interests in Kyrgyzstan -- including Russia and China, but also Western countries with commercial interests in the country, such as Canada -- will be watching the elections closely to gauge the vote's impact on those interests. Analysis Bishkek and Osh are the most important cities in northern and southern Kyrgyzstan

More than 50 years after President Eisenhower's warning, Americans find themselves in perpetual war. By Jonathan Turley January 13, 2014 - In January 1961, US President Dwight D Eisenhower used his farewell address to warn the nation of what he viewed as one of its greatest threats: the military-industrial complex composed of military contractors and lobbyists perpetuating war. Eisenhower warned that "an immense military establishment and a large arms industry" had emerged as a hidden force in US politics and that Americans "must not fail to comprehend its grave implications". The speech may have been Eisenhower's most courageous and prophetic moment. Fifty years and some later, Americans find themselves in what seems like perpetual war. No sooner do we draw down on operations in Iraq than leaders demand an intervention in Libya or Syria or Iran. While perpetual war constitutes perpetual losses for families, and ever expanding budgets, it also represents per

By Finian Cunningham January 13, 2014 - Russian intelligence has now reportedly obtained solid proof that Saudi Arabia was directly involved in the twin terror attacks on the city of Volgograd. The attacks killed more than 32 people and injured over 100 others. Most of the victims were civilians. According to an informed Russian official source, reported by the Fars News Agency, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has informed President Vladimir Putin of the Saudi link to the Volgograd massacre. This will come as no surprise to Putin. The Russian leader was warned by the Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar Bin Sultan during a heated four-hour private meeting back in July that Wahhabi-sponsored terrorists based in the North Caucasus region of Russia would be targeting the Sochi Winter Olympics. The Sochi Games are due to open on February 7. Volgograd is a key transport hub linking Moscow with the southern Russian territory and the Black Sea resort city of Sochi in particular, whe

Analysis EUROPE Jan. 13: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet in Paris to discuss the situation in Syria. Jan. 13-16: The European Parliament will hold a plenary session. Jan. 14: Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades will visit the United Kingdom and is expected to meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron. The Cypriot foreign, energy and finance ministers are also expected to visit the United Kingdom while Anastasiades is there. Jan. 16: French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will discuss the cost of France's military operations with the finance committee of the National Assembly. Jan. 16: Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is expected to present Greece's goals for its time as EU president to the European Parliament. Jan. 16-17: A European Parliament delegation will be in Ireland to meet with Irish government officials and discuss the country's experience with the bailout program. Jan. 18: EasyJet cabin crew mem

Stratfor Summary Switzerland is at the geographic center of Europe and in many ways is thoroughly integrated with the European Union, but the country resists full institutional integration for strategic reasons. Bern's "discriminatory" approach to immigration drew the ire of the European commissioner for employment, social affairs and inclusion earlier this week. Through bilateral agreements, Switzerland tries to find a balance between independence and integration with the rest of Europe. Maintaining this balance will become more difficult as the European crisis lingers and Euroskeptical forces in Switzerland remain strong. Brussels, as well as core countries such as France and Germany, is likely to put additional pressure on Switzerland out of fear that its selective European integration strategy will gain momentum in EU countries, thus weakening the bloc's structures. However, this pressure is unlikely to be effective because the European Union's crisis has fur

Text Size Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas in December 2013. (LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images) Summary With his presidency less stable than that of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, President Nicolas Maduro appears to be using dialogue to try to gather allies from the political opposition. Maduro met on Jan. 8 with opponents, including former presidential challenger and Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski. Prompted by the murder of a national celebrity, the meeting focused on Venezuela's soaring crime rate. Maduro's government is attempting to begin a political dialogue with the opposition by increasing the number of meetings between them. If he is able to gain support from opposition members, Maduro would gain the added benefit of exploiting divisions within the opposition coalition, enabling himself to focus on addressing other national issues. Analysis The meeting is one of several formal contacts between the ruling United Socialist Party of Vene