ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Israel has been stealing nuclear secrets and covertly making bombs since the 1950s. And western governments, including Britain and the US, turn a blind eye. But how can we expect Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions if the Israelis won't come clean? Julian Borger Israel's nuclear reactor at Dimona. Photograph: Getty Images Deep beneath desert sands, an embattled Middle Eastern state has built a covert nuclear bomb, using technology and materials provided by friendly powers or stolen by a clandestine network of agents. It is the stuff of pulp thrillers and the sort of narrative often used to characterise the worst fears about the Iranian nuclear programme. In reality, though, neither US nor British intelligence believe Tehran has decided to build a bomb, and Iran 's atomic projects are under constant international monitoring. The exotic tale of the bomb hidden in the desert is a true story, though. It's just one that applies to another country. In an extraordin

By Felicity Arbuthnot January 15, 2014 - A “devastating” two hundred and fifty page document: “The Responsibility of UK Officials for War Crimes Involving Systematic Detainee Abuse in Iraq from 2003-2008″, has been “presented to the International Criminal Court, and could result in some of Britain’s leading defence figures facing prosecution for “systematic” war crimes” the (London) Independent on Sunday has revealed.(i) The dossier charges that: ‘ “those who bear the greatest responsibility” for alleged war crimes “include individuals at the highest levels” of the British Army and political system.’ Among those named, states the Independent, are two former Defence Ministry supremos, Geoff Hoon and Adam Ingram, Defence Secretary and Minister of State for the Armed Forces, respectively, under Tony Blair’s premiership, during the planning and invasion of Iraq and for most of the UK’s occupation. General Sir Peter Wall, head of the British Army is also named. Shocking allegations have be

The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Harry S. Truman CSG with CVW 3 embarked is underway in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility supporting maritime security operations and conducting theater security cooperation efforts. Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units The USS Boxer ARG with the 13th MEU embarke

A Thai anti-government protester attends a rally in Bangkok on Jan. 15. ( Ed Wray/Getty Images) Summary The popular unrest that has brought Thai politics to a standstill is not particularly remarkable; political instability in the country has occurred cyclically over the past decade, and it shows no sign of abating anytime soon. What is remarkable about the current bout of turmoil is that it could prevent Thailand from benefiting from emerging economic developments in Southeast Asia. Over the past century, Thailand's geopolitical advantages, namely its strategic location and ethnic and cultural influence, have conferred on the country a regional leadership role. But Southeast Asia is changing: Manufacturers are leaving China as it moves up the value chain, the region is slowly integrating economically, the United States is turning its attention away from the Middle East toward the Asia-Pacific region, and Beijing is trying to expand its influence in Southeast Asia. If instability

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ships off Sagami Bay in Japan's Kanagawa prefecture. (KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/GettyImages) Summary Japan is trying to improve its strategic position by expanding military ties with India and boosting its naval presence in the Indian Ocean. According to Indian media reports on Jan. 13, Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera has requested that Japan be allowed to participate in this year's annual Malabar naval exercise between the United States and India. Though Japan has previously participated in a few Malabar exercises, the Indians have often declined to invite the Japanese, despite U.S. pressure, in order to avoid provoking China. Japan's engagement with India is not so much tailored toward the creation of a joint Indo-Japanese front against China -- a politically untenable goal at the moment -- as much as it is about bolstering Japan's own position in the Indian Ocean. Analysis Tokyo's request to participate in the naval exercise

By George Friedman Israel has begun its withdrawal from Gaza. As with all other territorial withdrawals by Israel, such as that from Sinai or from Lebanon, the decision is controversial within Israel. It represents the second withdrawal from land occupied in the 1967 war, and the second from land that houses significant numbers of anti-Israeli fighters. Since these fighters will not be placated by the Israeli withdrawal -- given that there is no obvious agreement of land for an enforceable peace -- the decision by the Israelis to withdraw from Gaza would appear odd. In order to understand what is driving Israeli policy, it is necessary to consider Israeli geopolitical reality in some detail. Israel's founders, taken together, had four motives for founding the state. To protect the Jews from a hostile world by creating a Jewish homeland.
 To create a socialist (not communist) Jewish state.
 To resurrect the Jewish nation in order to re-assert Jewish identity in history.
 To create

A store in Lisbon advertises a liquidation sale in December 2013. (PEDRO NUNES/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Portugal has had its share of highs and lows the past three years. Between 2011 and 2013, the country experienced a sovereign debt crisis; the collapse of the center-left government led by Prime Minister Jose Socrates and its replacement by a conservative government led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho; the signing of a 78 billion-euro ($106 billion) bailout deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund; the arrival of international inspectors in charge of scrutinizing the Portuguese economy; and most notably, the application of painful economic reforms and austerity measures like other countries dealing with the ongoing European economic crisis . With Lisbon expected to end its bailout program by mid-May, 2014 promises to be as turbulent as every year since the start of the Portuguese crisis. Analysis As part of its bailout deal, Lisbon is expected to cut i

A Kyrgyz man casts his ballot in Bishkek in 2011. (VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Kyrgyzstan's upcoming local elections, combined with numerous ongoing issues in the country, are threatening to create further instability in an already tenuous political and security environment. Mayoral elections will be held in the key cities of Bishkek and Osh on Jan. 15, marking the first time that mayoral candidates were nominated by city governments rather than by the president. While the transfer of nomination is meant to make the process more democratic, it has also led to increased political friction as rival candidates jockey for favor. External powers with interests in Kyrgyzstan -- including Russia and China, but also Western countries with commercial interests in the country, such as Canada -- will be watching the elections closely to gauge the vote's impact on those interests. Analysis Bishkek and Osh are the most important cities in northern and southern Kyrgyzstan