ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Assad says he may stand in this year's presidential election By Patrick Cockburn January 21, 2014 - " The Independent " - A long-awaited peace conference on Syria is likely to go ahead without one of the major participants of the conflict after the United Nations withdrew an invitation to Iran to attend the talks in Geneva. The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, rescinded Iran's invitation on the same day it was unexpectedly issued, following the threat of a boycott from the Syrian opposition and pressure from the United States. That the conference would take place at all looked in serious doubt through much of Monday, with Iran's participation being a major sticking point for the opposition. The meeting, arranged with strong US and Russian backing, is the only opportunity available for de-escalating, if not ending, the civil war in Syria. Iran is a main backer of President Bashar al-Assad and has supplied him with arms, money and military advisers during the thre...

U.S. intelligence leaker Edward Snowden has asked Russian authorities to help protect him after he received death threats disseminated in the U.S. media, his lawyer said Tuesday. This comes two days after several U.S. officials accused Snowden of being a Russian intelligence asset even before he found asylum abroad. The stage is set for the next round of intelligence and propaganda struggles between Russia and the United States . The narrative surrounding Edward Snowden, a former contract employee of the National Security Agency, has evolved over the past eight months following his theft and disclosure of the NSA's surveillance programs . Initially, it sparked a debate over whether he was a traitor -- particularly because he fled the United States to Hong Kong before leaping over to Moscow, where he was granted one year of asylum. But public sentiment has changed as revelations emerged about the surveillance programs that allegedly targeted millions of people around the world. The ...

Summary Editor's Note: The following is the second installment of a three-part series on growing debt for Russia's regional governments . Traditionally, Russia's regions have reacted against federal authority in times of economic crises, such as the so-called Ruble Crisis of 1998. The crisis serves as an example of how economic instability could add to the Kremlin's problems in managing the country, particularly since Russia is already dealing with divisions along social and ethnic lines. Analysis In 1997, the Asian financial crisis began to ripple throughout the world. Russia was still reeling politically, socially, economically and financially from the fall of the Soviet Union just six years before. Russia's industrial and service sectors had collapsed, and capital was leaving the country rapidly. Additionally, the price of the one thing bringing in money to Russia -- energy -- was dropping rapidly. Click to Enlarge By 1998, interest rates in Russia skyrockete...

Protesters hold candles at a pro-election rally Jan. 19 in Bangkok. (PAULA BRONSTEIN/Getty Images) Summary The Thai government's imposition of a 60-day state of emergency indicates that it is determined to proceed with controversial general elections, currently scheduled for Feb. 2. The emergency decree covers all of Bangkok and parts of the surrounding provinces of Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan. The decision came after the political opposition stepped up its protests, hoping to force the government to resign and postpone the election, which is expected to reaffirm the leadership of the ruling Pheu Thai party. Ultimately, the move could further restrict both sides' ability to compromise and could invite greater turbulence into the situation. Analysis The emergency decree expands the government's authority to deal with protests. It could outlaw gatherings of more than five people, censor the media and impose curfews should the situation deteriorate. The decree w...

By Alfred McCoy January 20, 2014 - For more than six months, Edward Snowden’s revelations about the National Security Agency (NSA) have been pouring out from the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Guardian, Germany’s Der Spiegel, and Brazil’s O Globo, among other places. Yet no one has pointed out the combination of factors that made the NSA’s expanding programs to monitor the world seem like such a slam-dunk development in Washington. The answer is remarkably simple. For an imperial power losing its economic grip on the planet and heading into more austere times, the NSA’s latest technological breakthroughs look like a bargain basement deal when it comes to projecting power and keeping subordinate allies in line -- like, in fact, the steal of the century. Even when disaster turned out to be attached to them, the NSA’s surveillance programs have come with such a discounted price tag that no Washington elite was going to reject them. For well over a century, from the pacificat...

The American and Canadian energy industries have transformed so quickly that pipelines connecting producing regions with consumption centers are now overwhelmed. Bottlenecks have even led to discounted prices for benchmark crudes such as West Texas Intermediate and Western Canada Select, a prospect that could threaten future investment. (Benchmark crudes serve as a reference price for oil buyers and sellers.) With pipeline projects facing political scrutiny, oil producers have turned to North America's unrivaled railway network . In 2013 alone, rail transport rose by 70 percent. And even though it costs roughly $10 more per barrel to ship it that way than by pipeline, railways offer several advantages. First, they can adapt to increased production volumes because the infrastructure is already in place. Second, they can carry any type of crude, so they have fewer restrictions on where they can take their cargo. For example, light sweet crude extracted from North Dakota's B...

Summary Editor's Note: The following is the first installment of a three-part series on growing debt for Russia's regional governments. Since the 2009 financial crisis , the Kremlin has allowed Russia's regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline in order to keep the federal government seemingly healthy, with a nominally small budget deficit and large currency reserves. But now most of Russia's regional governments' debt is so high, it is becoming dangerous for the federal government and big banks and could soon become unmanageable. Analysis Russia is so large that the Kremlin lacks the resources to run each region of the country directly. Currently Russia is split into 83 regions of all shapes and sizes, which fall into categories of oblasts, republics, krais, federal cities and autonomous okrugs. Historically, the Kremlin has given regional leaders (mayors, governors, heads or republic presidents) the power to run their own regions and ensure ...

A derelict fishing village on the Russian coast along the Barents Sea in 2010. (PIERRE-HENRY DESHAYES/AFP/Getty Images) Summary As the geopolitical importance of the Barents Sea region grows over time, so too will the potential for economic disputes between the primary players in the region, Norway and Russia. The countries' foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov of Russia and Borge Brende of Norway, met Jan. 20 in Russia and discussed, among other things, collaboration in the Barents region. The stakes are high given the area's natural resources and potential growth in maritime traffic, and tensions will likely grow as Russia tries to strengthen its influence in the region. Analysis The Barents Sea region spans across northern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northwestern Russia. Although the region is roughly the size of Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain combined, it is home to only about 5.2 million people. Most of the population and territory is Russian, as ...