ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

The ‘Jamahiriya’, the odd republic that former Libyan leader Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi created in accordance to a ‘model’ he conceived and expressed in his seminal “Green Book” - based on his Third Universal Theory, functioning as a kind of Constitution for Libya - was at best described as a confused mishmash of Chinese socialism with Islamic coloring. It was by all means a mess, but it worked in the sense that it kept Libya united, thanks to the authority and fear mongering exercised by its creator. Now, over three years after Qadhafi’s demise, Libya has plunged back into chaos. Not a week goes by without news that an ambassador, (the latest being the Jordanian one), or a foreign security official (the latest being one guarding the US embassy) has been kidnapped. Last March, in the wake of a no-confidence vote, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan resigned for "the good of the nation" and to ensure that Libyans “no longer fight each other.” The resignation came in the wake of an embarrassing

Following the March 30 local elections, which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had turned into an informal referendum on his own polarizing policies, Turkey is facing uncertainty both at home and abroad. Erdogan’s moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the elections decisively, gathering some 45 percent of the vote and besting its result in the previous local elections in 2009 (its main rival, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, came second with some 28 percent). But the next big election is already in sight - on August 10 Turks will vote in the first direct presidential vote in the country - and Turkish society is deeply divided. There is also trouble brewing with the economy and with Western allies who are uncomfortable with Erdogan’s continued crackdown on the separation of powers and on civil liberties in the country. One of the biggest uncertainties ahead is whether Erdogan, who is prohibited from running for a fourth term as a prime minister by internal p

Turkey's efforts to broaden its presence in Africa through trade and investment moved forward April 11, when Senegal established a business council with the republic. On April 9, Kenya opened an embassy in Ankara and signed several agreements on trade and security cooperation. However, the growing conflict between Fethullah Gulen's religious network known as the Hizmet movement and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party has the potential to damage or even reverse potential gains in Africa. This developing rift prompted Erdogan to order Turkish schools run by the Gulen movement overseas to be shut down. Problematically, Hizmet nongovernmental organizations and schools have over time become the main conduit for Turkish "soft power," enabling Ankara to establish and maintain relations with African states. Turkey's activity in Africa over the past decade, most notably in East Africa in recent years, has largely depended on H

Hezbollah fighters carry the coffin of Al-Manar cameraman Mohammad Mantash, who was killed in Syria, during his funeral in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Sir on April 15.(MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Several recent incidents have highlighted the tension that can flare up between Hezbollah fighters and Syrian soldiers, especially those at the local level. But despite occasional acrimony, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime will keep their relationship largely intact because each side depends heavily on the other. Analysis In early April, as rebel forces advanced in the al-Rashidin district of Aleppo, a Syrian Republican Guard officer reportedly killed a Hezbollah unit commander in a dispute over the direction of the battle. In response, the Hezbollah unit tried to withdraw from the front and was reportedly brought back to action only after high-ranking officials from both sides intervened. Several interviews with low-ranking loyalist and Hezbollah fighters have also empha

Buildings are shrouded in smog Jan. 14 in Changsha, Hunan province.(ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images) Summary China's central authorities are working to enhance the powers of the country's top environmental regulators. However, Beijing's need to accelerate environmental protection efforts will conflict with the need to sustain industrial activity and employment amid China's gradual, uncertain economic rebalancing and restructuring. Analysis In recent years, the Chinese government has put in place some of the world's toughest emissions standards for airborne pollutants such as sulfur dioxide. Beijing has also drafted plans to limit coal use in key urban areas and to curb wasteful production in heavy polluting industries . These actions have accompanied pledges by the country's leaders to shift China from a political-economic model that prioritizes rapid growth over the environment, among other things, to one that places more emphasis on environmenta

This undated file photo released Oct. 31, 2010, by Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Interior purports to show Ibrahim al-Asiri, chief bomb maker for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.Saudi Arabia Ministry of Interior, File Summary In the wake of the unprecedented airstrikes and military operations in Yemen over the past weekend, a great deal of murkiness remains. One of the rumors emanating from the attacks is that Ibrahim al-Asiri, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's chief bombmaker, was killed in a targeted attack. Al-Asiri is known for innovative designs that could stay ahead of security measures. If he is dead, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will lose some of its capabilities. Analysis The uncertainty following the recent spate of airstrikes and attacks stems partly from the difficulty of media reporting in Yemen's remote areas, where reporters are at risk of being kidnapped or killed, and partly from the history of misinformation and disinformation that tends to thrive i

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa (R) and Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez on the balcony of the Carondelet Palace in Quito on March 14.(RODRIGO BUENDIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Ecuador's ruling coalition, Alianza Pais, has decided to pursue a third term for Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa without holding a public referendum on the issue, according to media reports. The move will require constitutional reform, which can be done in one of two ways, and if Correa chooses the course of action he is expected to, he will need to begin within the next few months so that a bill may be presented to the parliament by October. With that process complete, there would be few legal obstacles to Correa's re-election. He is popular with voters because of his oil-funded social spending and subsidies, and the opposition has few means to stop him. Analysis Although Correa is barely a year into his second presidential term , he and other members of Alianza Pais have been openly disc

EUROPE April 22: By this date EU countries are expected to give feedback on an EU Commission assessment of possible financial and trade sanctions against Russia. April 23-27: Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa will travel to Spain and Italy. April 24: The EU Competitiveness Council will hold an informal meeting in Athens. April 27: Macedonia will hold parliamentary elections and the second round of its presidential election. FORMER SOVIET UNION April 21: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will visit Ukraine to discuss the latest events in the eastern part of the country. April 21: The leaders of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs are expected to travel to Ukraine. April 21: New Kazakh Defense Minister Serik Akhmetov is expected to pay an official visit to Azerbaijan. April 21-25: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will lead a high-level delegation to Azerbaijan and Belarus to discuss bilateral relations. April 22: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is schedule