ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Many observers have overlooked some of the ancillary regional consequences of the U.S.-Iran deal. As the United States and Iran reached the agreement, Washington encountered trouble with Iran's eastern neighbor, Afghanistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai would not sign the bilateral security agreement that would authorize a residual American force in Afghanistan after 2014. The standoff will be short-lived, but in light of the U.S.-Iran deal, battles will continue to take place in Afghanistan between two historic rivals: Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is now poised to play an unprecedented role in the region. U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice left Kabul on Tuesday after warning Karzai that if he did not sign the bilateral security agreement Washington would have to withdraw all of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year. That probably will not come to pass; Karzai is simply posturing to get additional concessions from Washington, many of which involve Karzai tryin

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua (R) and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, at the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry on April 21.(JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images) Summary A looming slowdown in the Chinese economy promises trouble for China's economic partners in Latin America, especially commodity exporters. The growing relationship between China and Latin America is on display this week as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tours the region in a trip that will wrap up April 26. Wang is visiting Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina to discuss bilateral financing and trade deals. China's slowing economy and potential for domestic economic instability threatens to sharply lower demand for key commodities exported by Latin American countries. Particularly vulnerable are countries such as Brazil, Peru and Chile that have seen China rise in importance as an export destination. Analysis When the 2008 financial crisis seized international trade and sent the European Union and the United S

Policemen investigate the site of the April 14 Boko Haram attack in Abuja. (STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The April 14 car-bombing near the Nigerian capital of Abuja, for which Boko Haram claimed responsibility over the weekend, marks the group's renewed use of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices to carry out attacks. Boko Haram is modifying its strategy, employing guerrilla and terrorist tactics while abandoning its effort to control a small part of Borno state -- a goal the group pursued during the first half of 2013. The most recent attack marks a return to the methods Boko Haram used in 2012, although the softer targets and lack of suicide bombers suggest a lower degree of sophistication. The group's activity during the first quarter of this year also suggests a more limited geographic concentration to the three northeastern states of Nigeria: Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. However, occasional attacks in Kano state and the Middle Belt region remain likely. Analysis Th

A German and Russian flag in front of the Westin Hotel in Leipzig, Germany, on April 23.(ROBERT MICHAEL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Europeans will continue to threaten Russia with sanctions to pressure Moscow to help implement the Geneva agreement on eastern Ukraine , but the likelihood of European financial and economic sanctions is small. An important reason is that Germany has prioritized strategic commercial deals with Russia and is reluctant to see relations deteriorate further. Yet with the German public and other European countries calling for greater energy freedom from Russia, it will become more difficult for Berlin to defend stronger ties with Russia. Analysis It is difficult for the European Union to reach a consensus on financial and economic sanctions against Russia because member states have their own bilateral ties with Russia to preserve. Even before the April 17 agreement, it was not possible to clearly define which countries were for or against financial and econo

Foreign workers wait for a visit from South Sudan's petroleum minister in the town of Paloch on March 2.(ANDREI PUNGOVSCHI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Relative calm had returned to South Sudan's oil-producing Unity state after government forces recaptured the state's capital, Bentiu, in January. The South Sudanese Petroleum Ministry had put forth a July 2014 deadline for resuming oil production, but the ongoing rebel offensive in the state has halted any attempts to meet that deadline. Any damage the oil facilities sustain in a rebel takeover would only prolong the time it would take to bring production back to pre-crisis levels. Analysis Oil production in Unity state, which at 50,000 barrels per day makes up about one-fifth of South Sudan's current production capacity, has been completely halted since fighting broke out near the oil facilities in December 2013. Interested outside parties have since weighed in on the matter. China has reiterated its interest in a diplo

The ‘Jamahiriya’, the odd republic that former Libyan leader Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi created in accordance to a ‘model’ he conceived and expressed in his seminal “Green Book” - based on his Third Universal Theory, functioning as a kind of Constitution for Libya - was at best described as a confused mishmash of Chinese socialism with Islamic coloring. It was by all means a mess, but it worked in the sense that it kept Libya united, thanks to the authority and fear mongering exercised by its creator. Now, over three years after Qadhafi’s demise, Libya has plunged back into chaos. Not a week goes by without news that an ambassador, (the latest being the Jordanian one), or a foreign security official (the latest being one guarding the US embassy) has been kidnapped. Last March, in the wake of a no-confidence vote, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan resigned for "the good of the nation" and to ensure that Libyans “no longer fight each other.” The resignation came in the wake of an embarrassing

Following the March 30 local elections, which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had turned into an informal referendum on his own polarizing policies, Turkey is facing uncertainty both at home and abroad. Erdogan’s moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the elections decisively, gathering some 45 percent of the vote and besting its result in the previous local elections in 2009 (its main rival, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, came second with some 28 percent). But the next big election is already in sight - on August 10 Turks will vote in the first direct presidential vote in the country - and Turkish society is deeply divided. There is also trouble brewing with the economy and with Western allies who are uncomfortable with Erdogan’s continued crackdown on the separation of powers and on civil liberties in the country. One of the biggest uncertainties ahead is whether Erdogan, who is prohibited from running for a fourth term as a prime minister by internal p

Turkey's efforts to broaden its presence in Africa through trade and investment moved forward April 11, when Senegal established a business council with the republic. On April 9, Kenya opened an embassy in Ankara and signed several agreements on trade and security cooperation. However, the growing conflict between Fethullah Gulen's religious network known as the Hizmet movement and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party has the potential to damage or even reverse potential gains in Africa. This developing rift prompted Erdogan to order Turkish schools run by the Gulen movement overseas to be shut down. Problematically, Hizmet nongovernmental organizations and schools have over time become the main conduit for Turkish "soft power," enabling Ankara to establish and maintain relations with African states. Turkey's activity in Africa over the past decade, most notably in East Africa in recent years, has largely depended on H