ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

As the European Union braces itself for more timid economic growth and high unemployment, France and Germany are preparing the ground for their next battle: the value of the euro and the role of the European Central Bank. In its spring forecast, which was released May 5, the European Commission said that growth is becoming broader-based in Europe. The headline numbers seem to confirm this statement; this year, the European Union's economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent, and the eurozone's by 1.2 percent. But the statistics hide the deep divisions between Europe's core and its periphery. Germany and its satellite economies (Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia) are expected to see modest growth and decreased unemployment over the next two years. But Mediterranean Europe (Spain, Greece, Italy and even France) is forecast to experience low growth and high unemployment. Even if Greece and Spain see minor economic growth his year, unemployment is expected to decrease on...

A pro-Russian activist beats a pro-Ukrainian supporter outside the burned trade union building in Odessa, Ukraine, on May 3. (ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Russia may soon cast its gaze beyond eastern Ukraine to the strategic port city of Odessa. A historically unique and multicultural city, Odessa is vital to Ukrainian commerce, and its internal divisions, not to mention its proximity to Transdniestria, the Moldovan breakaway territory Moscow uses as leverage against Chisinau, may be too tempting for Russia to overlook as the standoff with its eastern neighbor drags on. Analysis Odessa was once a premier warm-water port, serving as the primary point of maritime access for the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. From Odessa, ships can easily traverse the Black Sea, then pass through the Bosporus before reaching the Mediterranean Sea and finally the Atlantic Ocean. Like many port cities, Odessa is home to a variety of ethnic influences. Before succumbing to Russian contro...

Members of a Chinese SWAT team stand guard at Guangzhou railway station on May 6.(STR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The third attack on a railway station in just over two months raises new questions about the potential spread of Islamist militancy in China. The May 6 attack in Guangzhou, the capital of the southeastern province of Guangdong, was preceded by an April 30 attack in Urumqi , the capital of the western Uighur Xinjiang Autonomous Region, and a March 1 attack in Kunming , the capital of the southern Yunnan province. The Chinese government linked the first two attacks to alleged Uighur terrorists, but in Kunming and Guangzhou, there are signs that suggest radicalism may spread into the ethnically Han Muslim Hui population, marking a major change in China's internal security dynamic. Analysis Reports surrounding the May 6 attack remain fragmentary, but according to Chinese state and social media, between one and four assailants wearing white clothes and white hats and wielding ...

Beijing's lack of faith in rule of Kim Jong-un exposed in contingency plans to detain key North Korean leaders, set up border refugee camps and respond to "foreign forces" By Julian Ryall, Tokyo China has drawn up detailed contingency plans for the collapse of the North Korean government, suggesting that Beijing has little faith in the longevity of Kim Jong-un’s regime. Documents drawn up by planners from China’s People’s Liberation Army that were leaked to Japanese media include proposals for detaining key North Korean leaders and the creation of refugee camps on the Chinese side of the frontier in the event of an outbreak of civil unrest in the secretive state. The report calls for stepping up monitoring of China’s 879-mile border with North Korea. Any senior North Korean military or political leaders who could be the target of either rival factions or another “military power,” thought to be a reference to the United States, should be given protection, the documents...

  EUROPE May 5: EU finance ministers will meet in Brussels. May 5: The European Commission will publish its Spring European Economic Forecast during a news conference in Brussels. May 5: Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic will visit Vienna, Austria, where he will attend the meeting of the Committee of Foreign Affairs Ministers of the Council of Europe. May 5: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will start his European tour in Warsaw. May 5: Japan is expected to announce an initiative to help Eastern European countries build coal-fired power plants at the meeting of energy ministers from Japan and other G-7 industrialized nations in Rome. May 5-6: The EU agriculture and fisheries ministers' informal meetings will continue in Athens. May 6: EU finance ministers will hold a meeting of the Ecofin Council. May 6: The European Commission will discuss climate change adaptation and mitigation in range of the release of IPCC's (Int...

Members of the European Parliament vote in Strasbourg, eastern France, on Dec. 12, 2013, on procedures to take after Ukraine rejected an EU association agreement.(FREDERICK FLORIN/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The European Parliament's evolution from a consulting assembly to a supranational chamber with significant legislative powers highlights the extent of EU members' concerns about the democratic legitimacy of the continental bloc. After the May 22-25 election, the European Parliament will face three significant challenges: an electorate that is uninterested in the continental body, the onslaught of Euroskeptical parties wanting to weaken the European Union from within and national governments that will resist EU attempts to deepen continental integration. Analysis The European Parliament is a quintessentially EU product. It is meant to represent more than 500 million citizens. It is unique in the sense that it is the world's only democratically elected international institu...

Diamond sellers look at precious rocks in a section of the Tshilamba market in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Sept. 3, 2012.JUNIOR D.KANNAH/AFP/GettyImages Summary The history of the development of diamonds in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is deeply entrenched in violence. Officials from the two countries have been meeting in the northeastern Angolan town of Dundo to discuss the conflict-free development of diamonds found in their countries. However, Luanda and Kinshasa are less concerned about the humanitarian welfare of those mining their countries' diamonds than about making sure the resource is not used to restart either a proxy conflict against each other or a civil war within either country. Analysis The Angolan government is promoting the development of diverse economic sectors in order to expand its economy beyond the narrow hydrocarbons sector Luanda has historically depended on. Hydrocarbons are by far the most significant component of the Angol...

Smoke from a burning pro-Russian activist blockade rises around a flag of the Donetsk Republic on May 3 in Kramatorsk, Ukraine.(Scott Olson/Getty Images) Summary On May 2, Ukrainian forces restarted their military operation in eastern Ukraine. By May 4, Kiev reportedly controlled most of Kramatorsk, and security forces had surrounded Slovyansk, a stronghold for pro-Russian militants. Authorities struggled to maintain order in the southern city of Odessa, where more than 40 people were killed in May 2 clashes and where pro-Russian protesters stormed a police station May 4 and released detainees with little police interference. On April 30, the International Monetary Fund had approved a $17 billion aid package for Ukraine, with the first tranche scheduled for disbursement in early May. The developments underscore the twofold crisis facing the government in Kiev. Most immediately, authorities are struggling to exert power in the country's eastern regions. Meanwhile, despite financial...