ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Pro-Thaksin demonstrators at a rally in Phutthamonthon, a Bangkok suburb, on April 5. (PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Thai political establishment has an opportunity over the next two months to remove Thaksin Shinawatra and his family from political influence, but the populist Thaksin movement will likely band together to resist this pressure. Instability will build in the lead-up to the July 20 elections, and Thailand's underlying constitutional and succession crisis will continue. Analysis The removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office along with nine members of her Cabinet and their potential five-year ban from participation in politics over corruption charges are logical steps by anti-Thaksin political forces toward their immediate goal of weakening the ruling Pheu Thai party . These moves play into their long-term goal of purging the political system of the influence of Yingluck's family and in particular that of her exiled brother, Th...

Turkish soldiers march in a parade in Istanbul on Aug. 30, 2013.(OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Ankara has set a number of national goals to commemorate the Turkish republic's centennial in 2023, among them an update of the country's military. Though these modernization plans are not necessarily new, they have a renewed sense of urgency behind them due to the instability in nearby Iraq and Syria and the tensions between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. Still, fraught civil-military relations in the country and economic stresses may prevent Turkey from acquiring the so-called "ultra-modern" military it is seeking anytime soon. Analysis At least on paper, Turkey already boasts a very modern and capable military by regional standards. Its navy is second to none in the Middle East, and its overall military is the second largest in NATO and well-equipped. The state is planning to boost investment in the domestic defense industry , and several significant weapons are bei...

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder (L) announces indictments against Chinese military hackers on cyber-espionage as U.S. Attorney for Western District of Pennsylvania David Hickton (R) listens May 19, 2014 at the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C.(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) Summary Washington's decision to indict officers of China's People's Liberation Army over alleged state-sponsored industrial espionage marks an important change in Washington's relations with Beijing. The move highlights growing concerns over intellectual property rights and industrial spying, but it also shows the intensified attention being paid to the challenges that state-to-state competition in the cyber domain creates. Indictments have real consequences. Washington did not place largely unenforceable sanctions on individuals or bring a lawsuit to an international body that would take years to resolve, and those indicted risk extradition if they travel to a country with extradition t...

The silhouette of a Royal Thai Army machine gun in front of a picture of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the day after martial law was imposed in Bangkok. Rufus Cox/Getty Images Summary In many respects, the current crisis in Thailand is a reflection of centuries-old rivalries. It is rooted in the division between the rural majority in the north and northeast of the country and the urban elite centered in Bangkok. And then there are the deeper geopolitics of Thailand, dating back to the competition between the northern kingdom of Lanna and the southern kingdom of Siam . These underlying factors provide a frame and context for the political and social unrest that has dominated Thailand almost since the inauguration of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2001 (in part a rejection of the former government's handling of the Asian economic crisis), and certainly since his ouster in 2006, which saw in the country's first military coup in nearly 15 years. Analysis In times of economi...

An Egyptian man walks under posters of Egypt's former army chief and leading presidential candidate Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on May 12.(KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Former Egyptian military chief Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to win the May 26-27 presidential election in Egypt, the first since the July 2013 coup that ousted the country's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi. The Egyptian military is counting on al-Sisi's presidency to bring stability to the world's most populous Arab state, and through that stability, preserve the military's privileged place in Egyptian politics. However, there are more challenges now than when previous military-backed leaders ran the country. Al-Sisi lacks an established party to rule through and is contending with multiparty politics, rising jihadism, an angry and alienated Muslim Brotherhood and an economy in disarray and dependent on other countries for support. Even if al-Sis...

Members and vehicles of the Al Qaqa brigade from Zentan get ready to vacate the premises of their Tripoli quarter on November 21, 2013.(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The May 18 assault on parliamentary facilities by the Zentan-based Al Qaqa and Sawaaq brigades has left Tripoli in an uneasy stalemate, with Libya's many political, regional and militia leaders scrambling to assess their options. In solidarity with retired Gen. Khalifa Hifter's attempts to oust radical Islamist elements from the eastern city of Benghazi earlier in the week, the Zentan militia sought to arrest politicians affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and block their participation in government. The push by fighters from Zentan into Tripoli and Hifter's own incursion into Benghazi have been inconclusive; for now, neither Hifter's forces nor militias willing to align with him are in control of either of Libya's key urban centers. But with the future of the transitional government, the ...

Analysis The Thai army declared martial law May 20. Details are scarce at the moment, but media reports indicate that soldiers have deployed to strategic locations throughout Bangkok and seized at least one television station. Earlier in the day, Thai army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha had warned troops to be on high alert for continued violence after a series of political intimidation attacks in Bangkok, threats from rival protest groups (which had reportedly moved into closer vicinity to each other and threatened to raise conflict in the streets), rumors of rogue movements by the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachinburi, and even claims that a recent spate of bombings in the restive deep south had occurred to take advantage of the lack of clear authority in Bangkok. The martial law order follows nearly two weeks of heightened uncertainty after the Constitutional Court ruled to remove former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and several members of her Cabinet from office. Since that time...

Recently, Russian leaders and media reports claimed that China could invest more money in Crimea . Specifically, Chinese companies may help build a bridge across the Kerch Strait, creating a new link between Crimea and the Russian mainland. The Chinese may also help expand various Crimean ports, build solar power facilities, create special economic zones for manufacturing or even participate in other energy and transportation infrastructure projects. Russia has plenty of reasons to invite Chinese investment in Crimea, but ultimately Moscow wants to create a sense of strategic solidarity. Some Russian commentators have expressed obvious economic doubts about the proposed projects, which, in some cases, may not yield financial returns. In other cases, Moscow may seek to protect its own companies from Chinese competition, seeing as Russia will want to benefit from exports to the region and from heavy industry and construction contracts there. Commentators have also raised familiar com...