ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Pro-Russian activists fly the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic as Latvia's large Russian minority gathered for Victory Day at the Soviet Victory Monument in Riga on May 9.ILMARS ZNOTINS/AFP/Getty Images Summary Recent tensions surrounding ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic countries suggest that governments and local organizations are worried about possible social unrest related to the crisis in Ukraine. Ethnic and linguistic friction in the Baltics will not disappear any time soon, but these countries are likely to combine strong anti-Russian rhetoric (and a relatively minor amount of anti-Russian action) with attempts to appease the minorities as a counter to the threat from Moscow. Analysis Since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine , Stratfor has noted that one of Russia's many levers in dealing with the European Union is the potential use of ethnic Russian minorities in European countries to generate social unrest and political instability....

Afghan presidential candidates Abdullah Abdullah (L) and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.(WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Taliban will find it difficult to exploit the drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan that is currently under way. This is partly due to the fact that the Afghan government has made progress consolidating itself in recent years while the Taliban movement has suffered setbacks, especially in terms of fragmentation. The Taliban's factions disagree among themselves on whether or with whom to hold negotiations, have shown no aptitude or interest in the electoral process, and despite the Afghan security forces' limitations, have not been able to hold and control any significant territory in the country. Because the Taliban are too weak to force negotiations, the group is planning the largest military campaign since its ouster from Kabul in 2001 to destabilize the country enough that the next Afghan government feels compelled to...

Russia's Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corporation chairman Zhou Jiping pose for a photo at an agreement signing ceremony in Shanghai on May 21 with Russian President Vladimir Putin applauding in the background.ALEXEY DRUZHININ/AFP/Getty Images Summary Russia and China struck a long-awaited deal on natural gas May 21, according to Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. According to the provisions of the deal, which is worth $400 billion, Russia will supply 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China for the next 30 years, with the option to raise supplies to 60 billion cubic meters per year in the future. The agreement will enable Russia to launch plans for building the $42 billion Power of Siberia pipeline, a 4,000 kilometer-long (approximately 2,500 miles) pipeline that will tap two new source fields and run from Siberia to China. Analysis Russia and China had been trying to negotiate a deal for more than a decade; Russ...

Pro-Thaksin demonstrators at a rally in Phutthamonthon, a Bangkok suburb, on April 5. (PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Thai political establishment has an opportunity over the next two months to remove Thaksin Shinawatra and his family from political influence, but the populist Thaksin movement will likely band together to resist this pressure. Instability will build in the lead-up to the July 20 elections, and Thailand's underlying constitutional and succession crisis will continue. Analysis The removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office along with nine members of her Cabinet and their potential five-year ban from participation in politics over corruption charges are logical steps by anti-Thaksin political forces toward their immediate goal of weakening the ruling Pheu Thai party . These moves play into their long-term goal of purging the political system of the influence of Yingluck's family and in particular that of her exiled brother, Th...

Turkish soldiers march in a parade in Istanbul on Aug. 30, 2013.(OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Ankara has set a number of national goals to commemorate the Turkish republic's centennial in 2023, among them an update of the country's military. Though these modernization plans are not necessarily new, they have a renewed sense of urgency behind them due to the instability in nearby Iraq and Syria and the tensions between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. Still, fraught civil-military relations in the country and economic stresses may prevent Turkey from acquiring the so-called "ultra-modern" military it is seeking anytime soon. Analysis At least on paper, Turkey already boasts a very modern and capable military by regional standards. Its navy is second to none in the Middle East, and its overall military is the second largest in NATO and well-equipped. The state is planning to boost investment in the domestic defense industry , and several significant weapons are bei...

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder (L) announces indictments against Chinese military hackers on cyber-espionage as U.S. Attorney for Western District of Pennsylvania David Hickton (R) listens May 19, 2014 at the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C.(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) Summary Washington's decision to indict officers of China's People's Liberation Army over alleged state-sponsored industrial espionage marks an important change in Washington's relations with Beijing. The move highlights growing concerns over intellectual property rights and industrial spying, but it also shows the intensified attention being paid to the challenges that state-to-state competition in the cyber domain creates. Indictments have real consequences. Washington did not place largely unenforceable sanctions on individuals or bring a lawsuit to an international body that would take years to resolve, and those indicted risk extradition if they travel to a country with extradition t...

The silhouette of a Royal Thai Army machine gun in front of a picture of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the day after martial law was imposed in Bangkok. Rufus Cox/Getty Images Summary In many respects, the current crisis in Thailand is a reflection of centuries-old rivalries. It is rooted in the division between the rural majority in the north and northeast of the country and the urban elite centered in Bangkok. And then there are the deeper geopolitics of Thailand, dating back to the competition between the northern kingdom of Lanna and the southern kingdom of Siam . These underlying factors provide a frame and context for the political and social unrest that has dominated Thailand almost since the inauguration of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2001 (in part a rejection of the former government's handling of the Asian economic crisis), and certainly since his ouster in 2006, which saw in the country's first military coup in nearly 15 years. Analysis In times of economi...

An Egyptian man walks under posters of Egypt's former army chief and leading presidential candidate Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on May 12.(KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Former Egyptian military chief Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to win the May 26-27 presidential election in Egypt, the first since the July 2013 coup that ousted the country's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi. The Egyptian military is counting on al-Sisi's presidency to bring stability to the world's most populous Arab state, and through that stability, preserve the military's privileged place in Egyptian politics. However, there are more challenges now than when previous military-backed leaders ran the country. Al-Sisi lacks an established party to rule through and is contending with multiparty politics, rising jihadism, an angry and alienated Muslim Brotherhood and an economy in disarray and dependent on other countries for support. Even if al-Sis...