ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Rinat Akhmetov speaks during a press conference in Kiev on March 30, 2006 after legislative elections.(SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Rinat Akhmetov is Ukraine's richest man and arguably the most powerful oligarch in Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland. As clashes rage between Ukrainian security forces and pro-Russian separatist fighters, Akhmetov is becoming an increasingly important player in the country's crisis, given his influential position in eastern Ukraine and his working relationship with the Russian and Ukrainian governments. In a May 19 statement, Akhmetov called for regularly occurring peaceful rallies in opposition to the separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. Akhmetov's careful balancing of opposing forces in Kiev and Moscow will be key to any potential resolution in Ukraine, both in addressing the immediate separatist threat in the east and in determining the country's broader political course. Analysis After separatists seized and occup

Royal Thai Army soldiers secure the streets of Bangkok following a military coup, May 22. (Rufus Cox/Getty Images) Analysis The Thai military declared May 22 that it has taken control of the government for the good of the nation. The announcement followed a series of meetings between opposing political forces and mediated by the military that failed to come up with a compromise to end the political standoff that has plagued Thailand for several years. After declaring martial law on May 19, the military took on the role of mediator, but the near intractable stances of the opposing political forces made a coup all but inevitable. Coups are part of the cycle of Thai politics and in recent times have been relatively bloodless. The military now will begin the process of establishing control over the various ministries, building an interim military-backed government to run day-to-day operations in Thailand. Recent polls showed that some 80 percent of Thais support martial law, but the milita

Chinese security personnel guarding a checkpoint along one of the highways leading into Beijing on May 20.(STR/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis Just three weeks after a bomb explosion at the south train station in Urumqi , the capital of China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, left three people dead and 79 injured, a much deadlier attack has taken place in downtown Urumqi, killing at least 31 and wounding 90. At 7:50 a.m. May 22, attackers driving two off-road vehicles crashed into an outdoor market near People's Park, tossing explosives into the crowd of morning shoppers before one of the vehicles exploded, witnesses told Xinhua News Agency. One owner of a nearby shop told Xinhua that he heard four or five explosions altogether and saw "three or four people lying on the ground," while others said they heard as many as 12 blasts. Click to Enlarge The attack is notable for its location -- near the center of Urumqi, one of the most heavily policed cities in China -- and f

A South Korean Marine watches an amphibious assault drill in March. (JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis North and South Korea briefly exchanged artillery fire May 22 in waters along the disputed Northern Limit Line, or NLL, a maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone in the Yellow Sea that North Korea considers illegitimate. According to South Korean reports, North Korean naval artillery shells fell near a South Korean patrol vessel near Yeonpyeongdo, a small island south of the NLL. South Korean ships responded with at least two shots fired into the water near a North Korean patrol boat. On May 20, South Korean ships fired warning shots at three North Korean patrol vessels that had reportedly crossed south of the NLL. On May 21, North Korea responded by issuing a statement condemning "firing at random" by the South Koreans, declaring that "all warships of the south Korean puppet navy, big and small, which recklessly maneuver in the sensitive waters of the

Pro-Russian activists fly the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic as Latvia's large Russian minority gathered for Victory Day at the Soviet Victory Monument in Riga on May 9.ILMARS ZNOTINS/AFP/Getty Images Summary Recent tensions surrounding ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic countries suggest that governments and local organizations are worried about possible social unrest related to the crisis in Ukraine. Ethnic and linguistic friction in the Baltics will not disappear any time soon, but these countries are likely to combine strong anti-Russian rhetoric (and a relatively minor amount of anti-Russian action) with attempts to appease the minorities as a counter to the threat from Moscow. Analysis Since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine , Stratfor has noted that one of Russia's many levers in dealing with the European Union is the potential use of ethnic Russian minorities in European countries to generate social unrest and political instability.

Afghan presidential candidates Abdullah Abdullah (L) and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.(WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Taliban will find it difficult to exploit the drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan that is currently under way. This is partly due to the fact that the Afghan government has made progress consolidating itself in recent years while the Taliban movement has suffered setbacks, especially in terms of fragmentation. The Taliban's factions disagree among themselves on whether or with whom to hold negotiations, have shown no aptitude or interest in the electoral process, and despite the Afghan security forces' limitations, have not been able to hold and control any significant territory in the country. Because the Taliban are too weak to force negotiations, the group is planning the largest military campaign since its ouster from Kabul in 2001 to destabilize the country enough that the next Afghan government feels compelled to

Russia's Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corporation chairman Zhou Jiping pose for a photo at an agreement signing ceremony in Shanghai on May 21 with Russian President Vladimir Putin applauding in the background.ALEXEY DRUZHININ/AFP/Getty Images Summary Russia and China struck a long-awaited deal on natural gas May 21, according to Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. According to the provisions of the deal, which is worth $400 billion, Russia will supply 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China for the next 30 years, with the option to raise supplies to 60 billion cubic meters per year in the future. The agreement will enable Russia to launch plans for building the $42 billion Power of Siberia pipeline, a 4,000 kilometer-long (approximately 2,500 miles) pipeline that will tap two new source fields and run from Siberia to China. Analysis Russia and China had been trying to negotiate a deal for more than a decade; Russ

Pro-Thaksin demonstrators at a rally in Phutthamonthon, a Bangkok suburb, on April 5. (PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Thai political establishment has an opportunity over the next two months to remove Thaksin Shinawatra and his family from political influence, but the populist Thaksin movement will likely band together to resist this pressure. Instability will build in the lead-up to the July 20 elections, and Thailand's underlying constitutional and succession crisis will continue. Analysis The removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office along with nine members of her Cabinet and their potential five-year ban from participation in politics over corruption charges are logical steps by anti-Thaksin political forces toward their immediate goal of weakening the ruling Pheu Thai party . These moves play into their long-term goal of purging the political system of the influence of Yingluck's family and in particular that of her exiled brother, Th