ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

U.S. President Barack Obama took the opportunity Wednesday to outline the United States' foreign policy in a commencement speech to West Point graduates. From our point of view, the president was more confirmatory than revelatory in his core message: The United States, as the undeniable global hegemon, is getting back on its feet and it does not intend to manage the world's problems alone. In our 2014 Annual Forecast , we said that this would be the year that the United States finally catches its breath after spending a decade stumbling through intractable conflicts in the Islamic world. Obama underlined that prognosis Tuesday when he announced that a residual force of 9,800 troops would be left in Afghanistan through the year, dropping to just the security contingent for the U.S. Embassy in Kabul by the end of 2016. As he conveyed in his Wednesday speech, the militant headaches expected to persist in Afghanistan will be put in the same basket as those in Mali or Yemen. In othe

Click to Enlarge The State Grid Corp. of China announced May 14 that official approval is imminent for a controversial plan to build 12 cross-country ultra high-voltage power transmission lines . The proposed power lines would link resource-rich western provinces to China's major central and coastal consumer bases. If granted, the approval will be a breakthrough for State Grid -- the larger of China's two government-owned power grid operators -- and for the Chinese power sector as a whole. It will signal that China's leaders are committed to building a nationally integrated power grid. The long-term undertaking would entail not only enormous government expenditures, but also the reorganization of much of the physical and industrial structure of China's power generation and transmission sectors, the relationship between the sectors' constituent parts, and perhaps most critically, the relationship between China's energy-producing and energy-consuming regions. M

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said that if an agreement on gas pricing can be reached then Ukraine could settle its energy debts within ten days, alternatively, Kiev will file a lawsuit against Gazprom, Interfax reported May 29. On May 28 Ukraine refused to pay $2 billion to Gazprom for gas it has already consumed. According to Gazprom, the country's total gas debt is around $ 5.2 billion. Using some of a loan granted by the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine will likely make a partial payment of its debt towards Gazprom this week, in order to facilitate further talks

Thai troops stand guard near portraits honoring Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Bangkok on May 26.(Paula Bronstein/Getty Images) Summary Thailand's military takeover after political negotiations collapsed May 22 reinforced a well-established pattern in the country: When rival Thai political factions reach an impasse that paralyzes the government, the Royal Thai Army -- typically acting in the name of the monarchy -- has the ability to restore order and reset the country's political framework. However, while military coups have been a regular feature of Thai politics for much of the past century, the impending royal succession heightens the uncertainty surrounding the current takeover. The military has indicated that it will not rush to give up power, possibly waiting until after the impending royal succession, though it will likely install a military-backed interim government. Civilian rule will likely not be restored until the Thai Constitution is revised and at least a tempo

A general view shows the Jaguari Dam, one of the main reservoirs supplying Sao Paulo, Brazil, with its water level to 12 percent of its total capacity on April 25.Victor Moriyama/Getty Images Summary The current drought in Brazil has already affected the country's energy and agriculture sectors. Municipalities -- specifically Sao Paulo -- are now facing possible supply shortages as the drought continues. A few solutions can be implemented in the short term. The government is likely to promote conservation measures, and increased water rationing appears unavoidable. This could negatively affect the ruling party in Sao Paulo state, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, in upcoming elections. The elections are still six months away, but water rationing in Brazil's largest voting center and the heart of the party supporting Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's challenger Aecio Neves does not bode well for Neves or his party. Voters in the region are likely to blame the Brazili

A Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopter during military exercises in Ukraine in 2012.(SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/GettyImages) Summary The Ukrainian military's operation May 27 at the Donetsk airport highlighted its increasing reliance on its army aviation. In the most violent clash between Ukrainian forces and separatists so far, which came only hours after Ukraine elected a new president , Ukrainian forces were successful in driving out separatists from the airport. Ukraine will continue to rely heavily on its army aviation, which under certain conditions gives it a substantial edge against the separatists. Analysis At the start of the conflict, Ukraine's army aviation (literally its "ground forces air arm") officially maintained some 200 helicopters, mostly Soviet-era transport helicopters and gunships. In reality, 85 percent of the helicopter fleet was in storage and not airworthy. Repeated attempts at modernization prior to the conflict were stalled because of a lack of fu

A composite photo shows Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.SAM PANTHAKY/AFP/Getty Images, Oli Scarff - WPA Pool /Getty Images Summary The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by its controversial chief Narendra Modi, in India's recent general elections has significant ramifications for Indo-Pakistani relations, especially as Islamabad is preoccupied with the cross-border Taliban insurgency on its western flank. Modi's incoming government will have to balance between its need for pragmatism and its imperative to show that it has a more effective and tougher policy toward the threats emanating from Pakistan than the previous Indian government. Conversely, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's administration has a need to improve ties with India but faces massive resistance from within the security establishment. Since both governments are led by right-wing nationalists with strong opinions on religion and signif

Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko speaks to the media during a press conference on May 26 in Kiev.Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Analysis Petro Poroshenko has been declared the official winner in Ukraine's presidential elections , receiving around 54 percent of the vote. Despite Russia's cautious welcoming of Poroshenko's victory, the new Ukrainian leader faces some immediate challenges to his rule. First and foremost will be dealing with pro-Russian separatism in Ukraine's eastern regions . As expected, voting could not be held in many parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly in the separatist strongholds. Then, just a day after the election, separatists took over the regional airport in Donetsk, where Ukrainian security forces confronted them. Heavy fighting continued into May 27. The operation to dismantle the separatist takeover in Donetsk is one of the largest since Ukrainian security forces launched what the government calls anti-terrorism opera