ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Wednesday was the 25th anniversary of the bloody crackdown that ended China's Tiananmen Square protests. The occasion offers an opportunity to consider what might have been. By this we do not mean if the protesters had succeeded, because "success" would imply that the students and workers who briefly occupied central Beijing in mid-1989 had a clear and achievable platform. They did not. Rather, we mean that the anniversary offers a chance to ask whether China would be different today had the protests never taken place, or if they had taken place at another time under different circumstances. In key respects, not much would be different. The core tensions and structural imbalances that frame contemporary Chinese geopolitics, from perennial struggles between the central and local governments to starkly uneven regional development to China's unprecedented maritime expansion in the South and East China seas that erupted a few years ago, would have unfolded in some similar

A pro-Russian militant guards a state building seized in Donetsk, Ukraine.(VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Kiev and Moscow are escalating their battle for control of eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government announced June 3 that it would launch the next stage of a campaign to win back control of the country's east from militant separatists. At the same time, Russian-backed groups are working to consolidate control over those same separatists as a way to put more pressure on Kiev to compromise. Both sides believe eastern Ukraine is critical for determining the country's future orientation and territorial unity, and Russia will use all the leverage it can find to pressure Kiev into accepting its conditions for a stand-down. Analysis Separatists continue to occupy buildings and shoot down Ukrainian helicopters, imposing a heavy burden on the government in Kiev. While separatists are spread out through towns and villages in Donestk and Luhansk regions, the strongholds of

Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller sits in on a press conference by the Russian Energy Minister following talks on energy security in Berlin, on May 30.(JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Natural gas prices in Europe are in the middle of a structural transition away from oil indexed contracts to contracts dependent on the spot price of natural gas. This transition has already occurred in more liberalized markets such as the United Kingdom, but now Russia is being forced to change its contract structure toward spot prices of natural gas. On May 23, Italian energy company Eni signed a deal with Gazprom in which, for the first time, Gazprom allowed the price to be determined by the spot market for natural gas instead of being linked to oil prices. Russia has long fought to keep the price formulation linked to oil prices, as that arrangement is more lucrative. While Italy is the first country for which Moscow had to give up this pricing mechanism, it certainly will not be the last. With new

A valve is tightened at eastern Ukraine's Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground natural gas storage facility May 21.(ALEXANDER ZOBIN/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis It appears as though Ukraine and Russia are willing to compromise on energy deliveries despite concerns that they would not. On June 2, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced that his company received payments from Ukraine for February and March natural gas deliveries, worth a total of $786 million. In response, Gazprom agreed to postpone the deadline by which Ukraine would fully repay its debts and begin pre-payments for future deliveries from June 2 to June 9. Gazprom has also indicated that it would be willing to lower the natural gas price from its initial offer of $485 per thousand cubic meters, or mcm, of gas to $385.50 per mcm if Kiev repaid its debts. That is not to say the situation is resolved entirely. The price tag for natural gas is still much higher than Ukraine initially demanded ($268.50 per mcm), and the amount

Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta (C) with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw.(JANEK SKARZYNSKI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The crisis in Ukraine, and Russia's aggressive tactics there, have opened the door for greater cooperation among countries from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, especially on defense and energy issues. If Poland and Romania, the two largest countries in the region, decide to pursue a closer alliance structure, other smaller countries in the region could follow. However, most countries in Central and Eastern Europe are more interested in developing bilateral ties with the United States than with each other, and substantial foreign investment on energy and defense would be necessary for any alliance to work. As a result, the United States will have to play a significant role in developing a cohesive alliance in the region. Analysis The events in Ukraine have had a deep political and emotional impact in Central and Eastern Europe. Countries from Estonia

EUROPE June 2: The European Commission will present its 2014 country-specific recommendations in Brussels. June 2: Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades will meet with Turkish Cypriot Leader Dervis Eroglu. June 2: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Chairman-in-Office, Swiss President and Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter will hold official meetings in Azerbaijan after his arrival June 1. June 2: An International Monetary Fund mission will arrive in Bucharest for the third review of a stand-by agreement finalized in September 2013. June 4: The European Commission will present the details of its 2014 Convergence Report assessing the readiness of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden to adopt the euro. June 4: The EU Permanent Representatives Committees, Coreper I and Coreper II, will meet in Brussels. June 4: U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Poland on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the country's first de

The abdication of Spanish King Juan Carlos I, announced June 2 by Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, will probably leave bittersweet feelings. In the almost four decades he sat on the Spanish throne, King Juan Carlos simultaneously served as a bulwark of democracy and a symbol of a decaying institution. The monarch leaves the throne at a time when the entire Spanish political system and the institutions that sustain it have been called into question. The mainstream media has amply described the king's role during the 1970s, but this does not diminish the importance of his actions at the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship. When Spain's longtime dictator died in 1975, it was not a given that the Iberian country would become a democracy. Franco himself had been certain that the king would maintain much of the old regime's political framework. It took significant courage and talent for Juan Carlos to negotiate a transition to democracy and the writing of a new consti

A valve is tightened at eastern Ukraine's Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground natural gas storage facility May 21.(ALEXANDER ZOBIN/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis It appears as though Ukraine and Russia are willing to compromise on energy deliveries despite concerns that they would not. On June 2, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced that his company received payments from Ukraine for February and March natural gas deliveries, worth a total of $786 million. In response, Gazprom agreed to postpone the deadline by which Ukraine would fully repay its debts and begin pre-payments for future deliveries from June 2 to June 9. Gazprom has also indicated that it would be willing to lower the natural gas price from its initial offer of $485 per thousand cubic meters, or mcm, of gas to $385.50 per mcm if Kiev repaid its debts. That is not to say the situation is resolved entirely. The price tag for natural gas is still much higher than Ukraine initially demanded ($268.50 per mcm), and the amount