ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Analysis EUROPE July 14: The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will be held in Brussels. July 14-15: EU ministers for development will hold an informal meeting in Florence, Italy. July 14-17: The European Parliament will hold a plenary session in Strasbourg, France. July 14-17: European Parliament committee meetings will be held in Strasbourg, France. July 14-18: The sixth round of talks for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will be held in Brussels. July 15: The European Parliament will vote on the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as the European Commission president. July 16: The European Council will gather in Brussels. July 16: The European Commission will host a donor conference for Serbia and Bosnia focusing on helping them recover from the devastating May floods that damaged infrastructure and left thousands homeless. July 16: The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. July 16: The European Central Bank Governing Council will gathe

Summary Editor's Note: This is the first installment in a three-part series explaining how one of Africa's most wealthy nations became a mainstay for armed militias. Part 1 discusses the political circumstances that engendered militancy. Part 2 examines Boko Haram, perhaps the most infamous group operating in the country today. Part 3 discusses how the 2015 presidential election will determine the future of Boko Haram's insurgency. Militancy is part of Nigeria's national fabric . Whereas it was once a means of expressing political grievance, it has become a tactic militant groups and their civilian benefactors use to acquire and defend political power. Militancy flourishes in Nigeria because political advancement requires it. In years past, groups achieved power through military coups. In fact, competing factions of the Nigerian military have ruled the country for most of its post-independence history. But Nigerian politicians did not discriminate between powerful civil

Leaders talk at the BRICS meeting during the G20 summit in 2013 in St. Petersburg, Russia. (Alexei Danichev/Host Photo Agency via Getty Images) Summary The sixth BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit begins July 14 in Brazil. The three-day summit is expected to see plans finalized for a new financial institution to be known as the BRICS Development Bank and a currency pool to be known as the Contingency Reserve Arrangement. The moves are a part of an ongoing process by which non-Western developing countries are seeking to build mechanisms for loans with fewer conditions than those issued by multilateral Western institutions. It also represents an effort to create insulation from potential fallout from future crises in the Western-led financial system, which BRICS' efforts notwithstanding will continue to dominate the world's financial markets. Within the new BRICS mechanism itself, China will dominate given that its economy and financial power dwarfs those

Click to Enlarge There are indications that Israel Defense Forces may enter the Gaza Strip yet again. The Israeli Cabinet has called for approximately 100,000 Gaza residents to vacate northern and southern border villages, a statement typically made before ground incursions or intensive airstrikes in the hopes of limiting civilian casualties. Hamas has urged Palestinians not to follow the order. If the Israeli military does invade Gaza, it may simply be an operation in border villages, not the entire territory. That kind of offensive would require combat engineer units equipped with heavy bulldozers, and dedicated artillery and close air support assets such as helicopters. For now, ground operations will focus on intelligence gathering or interdicting movement and rocket launching systems. Indeed, by targeting the border areas, the military means to destroy the launch sites closest to Israel, mitigating the risk the rockets pose to Israel's major population centers . In add

Analysis The Russian government has begun drawing up a program to help its regions address their skyrocketing debts . The initial plan -- agreed upon by the Ministry of Finance, State Duma and Federation Council -- will allocate $1.76 billion in 2014 for the 20 most indebted regions. The Tver, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Astrakhan regions will receive the most funds. The program will also implement emergency tax provisions and subsidies. Regions with debts that exceed 50 percent of regional budget revenues will also collectively receive budgetary loans of approximately $2 billion from the federal government. Click to Enlarge The Russian regions' debt has skyrocketed since the 2008 global financial crisis because the Kremlin has allowed the regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline while maintaining the health and strength of the federal government. The debt increases have also resulted from over-taxation by the federal government, decreases in federal subsidi

A North Oil Company natural gas field near an Islamic State checkpoint southwest of Kirkuk, Iraq.(MARWAN IBRAHIM/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Early July 11, the Kurdistan Regional Government deployed its peshmerga forces to take control of Iraq's state-owned North Oil Company operations in the Kirkuk and Bai Hassan oil fields, which are located in disputed territory. These fields will theoretically add about 500,000 barrels per day to the Kurdistan Regional Government's production capacity. Their ability to bring it to market, however, will be greatly limited by their current infrastructure and technical capacity, not to mention the security challenges that lie ahead. Analysis The peshmerga first exploited the security vacuum in northern Iraq in mid-June by deploying troops to the city of Kirkuk and around major oil fields in the region, including Bai Hassan and Kirkuk. Until this recent move, however, Iraqi federal officials and workers from the North Oil Company had been allowed

Thai soldiers lead away an alleged Red Shirt member ahead of a planned protest in Bangkok on May 25.(Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Thai military's efforts to eradicate former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's political influence in Thailand have subdued his "Red Shirt" supporters, at least for now. Since taking power in a bloodless coup May 22, the junta has dismantled the opposition movement's leadership structure, disrupting its organizing capabilities and shutting off sources of funding, which will likely prevent the opposition from challenging the interim government in the immediate future. However, the Red Shirts will likely reconstitute themselves relatively quickly once the military eases the clampdown, and certain elements are capable of causing considerable chaos. If the military cannot divide, co-opt or contain the movement, it will be forced to tighten its hold on power, a development that would only galvanize the Red Shirt hard-liner

Sudanese President Omar al Bashir (L) shakes hands with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi after an official visit in Khartoum on June 27.(EBRAHIM HAMID/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance regarding exchanges of rocket fire and airstrikes in Israel and Gaza to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions for areas for focus. There has been a noticeable uptick in diplomatic activity involving Sudan that could carry significant implications for the current Gaza crisis and its aftermath. The following diplomatic engagements in recent days are worth noting: June 23: Egyptian presidential assistant, Musa Muhammad Ahmad, holds a meeting with the Sudanese ambassador to Cairo, Anthony Kon. June 27: Newly elected Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stops in Khartoum during his flight back fro