ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

  Herrings and the Courts By   George Friedman  - July 1, 2024 Open as PDF Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on two cycles, one a 50-year socio-economic cycle, the other an 80-year institutional cycle. For the first time in history, both are coming full circle at the same time. To recap, the first institutional cycle, which established a federal government, began with the American Revolution and concluded with the Civil War, ending in 1865. The second institutional cycle, which established the federal government’s authority over the states, ran from the Civil War to World War II. We are now nearing the end of the third institutional cycle, which has expanded the federal government’s authority over the economy and society. All cycles are built to render the previous one obsolete. In WWII, U.S. power triumphed because of the knowledge of expert...

  The Euro-American Shift By   George Friedman  - July 8, 2024 Open as PDF There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system. As the world evolves, so do these pressures. They normally affect countries one by one, but sometimes they can impact multiple countries at the same time. We are now in the midst of a transcontinental systemic crisis affecting many European countries as well as the United States. In these regions, the forces being brought to bear have resulted in a loss of confidence in the state and the cultural matrix. There is a culture war, focused on issues ranging from gender to the movement of people, driven by economic and political forces. Long-standing cultural norms are being restructured, a shift frequently overseen and endorsed by the state. The movement of people across borders brings with it diverse cultural values, poverty-driven crime and...

  Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to Panama’s national migration service, in the first five months of 2024, 158,747 migrants crossed the dense, treacherous land bridge between South and Central America. Nearly 102,000 were Venezuelans. Thousands also came from Ecuador, Haiti and Colombia. These shifts reflect growing migratory pressures in countries of origin as well as the development of more sophisticated routes. But they heighten tensions between countries of origin and transit and receiving countries, which often lack resources to support large numbers of migrants.

  Geopolitical News Summary - July 10, 2024 1. NATO and Ukraine Conflict NATO members are facing challenges in reaching an agreement on Sweden's membership due to Turkey's opposition. President Biden, currently in London, is discussing the war in Ukraine with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and plans to address environmental issues with King Charles III. President Biden has also been in discussions with Turkish President Erdoğan to resolve the Sweden membership issue​ ( WORLD ) ​​ ( Global Issues ) ​. 2. Ukraine Marks 500 Days of War Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commemorated the 500th day of the war, emphasizing Ukraine's global position as a defender of human rights and democracy. Zelenskyy made a symbolic appearance on Snake Island, a site of early resistance against Russian forces​ ( WORLD ) ​. 3. Israel-Hamas Conflict The conflict between Israel and Hamas has intensified, with new estimates revealing over 186,000 deaths in Gaza. This significant increase in ...

 En la teoría, la democracia se define como un sistema de gobierno donde el poder reside en el pueblo y las decisiones se toman a través de mecanismos de participación directa o representativa. No obstante, en la práctica, las democracias modernas pueden desviarse significativamente de este ideal. A continuación, se detallan algunas de las discrepancias más notables entre la teoría democrática y su implementación práctica. Acumulación de Poder por Parte de las Élites En muchas democracias modernas, las élites económicas y políticas han logrado acumular una gran cantidad de poder e influencia. Esto se realiza a través de donaciones de campaña, actividades de lobby y el control de los medios de comunicación. Las donaciones de campaña permiten a las élites financiar a los candidatos que promueven sus intereses, mientras que el lobby consiste en influir directamente en los legisladores para moldear políticas y decisiones gubernamentales. Este poder se ejerce frecuentemente a expensas d...

  Relevant Worldwide News - July 8, 2024 Hurricane Beryl Hits Texas Hurricane Beryl, initially a Category 1 storm, made landfall on the Texas coast and was later downgraded to a tropical storm. The storm is causing significant disruption with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding across southeastern Texas. Authorities have issued warnings for dangerous storm surges and potential flooding as Beryl moves inland​ ( UPI ) ​. Escalation in Ukraine Conflict Russian missile strikes have intensified in Ukraine, resulting in at least 31 deaths and over 100 injuries. The attacks have severely impacted several cities, including the capital, Kyiv, where a children's hospital was among the damaged sites. This marks one of the deadliest series of strikes in recent months​ ( Global Issues ) ​. Global Climate Crisis The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that June 2024 was the hottest June on record, continuing a trend of 12 consecutive months of record-br...

 Key Geopolitical Flashpoints in the Middle East and Southeast Asia Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes in Lebanon Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have escalated, prompting several countries to urge their citizens to leave Lebanon and the U.S. to prepare evacuation plans[1][2][3]. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is part of the broader rivalry between Iran's network of state and non-state actors, and a counter-front of traditional Western allies centered on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel[3]. Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have rerouted container shipping from the Suez Canal around southern Africa, adding 10-14 days to transit and requiring more fuel[2][4]. Over 10% of global trade, 12% of seaborne oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Red Sea[4]. The attacks have disrupted global supply chains and raised the risk of a regional war in the Middle East[4]. Tensions Between China a...

 Concise Summary of Today's Key Geopolitical News Tensions Between China, Russia, and the West Remain High Tensions between China, Russia, and the Western powers continue to shape global events, with the Russo-Ukrainian war, trade disputes, and upcoming consequential elections all contributing to an unstable geopolitical landscape.[3][5] Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes Raise Regional Tensions Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have escalated, prompting several countries to urge their citizens to leave Lebanon and the U.S. to prepare evacuation plans.[5] Shifting Political Landscapes Across the Globe Various countries are experiencing political shifts, including: - Madagascar's ruling coalition securing a parliamentary majority[5] - Deadlocked negotiations over cabinet formation in South Africa[5]  - The EU outlining its strategic agenda for the next five years[5] - Israel taking measures that push it closer to annexation of the West Bank[5] - Azerbaijan's p...