Skip to main content

Why We Will See an Increase in Violence in the Middle East

Predicting the Middle East’s political future has always been more of a gamble than an exact science. The region’s prevailing political precariousness is what makes it so impossible to sensibly forecast future developments. However, despite all the instability -- or perhaps in spite of all the instability it is safe to make the following call: more violence can be predicted in the coming 12 months. Additionally, it is safe to say that there will also be more changes in the coming year. And that can be a cause of conflict.
Change, as a rule, frightens most people, and today there are good reasons to be fearful considering the situation in the Levant – in Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Gaza. It could hardly get any worse. Could it? Oh yes, it can.  Just keep your eye on the new – or not so new – growing divergence between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Sunni Muslims have traditionally been the predominant force but have somewhat fallen into a sort of political slumber since the demise of the Ottoman Empire. The rising power of Shiism that came about with the success of the Iranian Revolution suddenly gave the Shia unprecedented political clout, something that started to worry the traditional Sunni base and the leadership in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.  It also did not take long to revive the age-old Sunni-Shia schism and to widen it.
Besides the battle for the hearts and minds of each other’s power base – the faithful – you can also throw in the Middle East’s two largest and richest oil fields, those in Saudi Arabia and those in Iran. The Shiia remain the disfavored of the two main branches of Islam, the Sunnis being the overwhelming majority. But should either side manage to control all the oil then they would also be in a position to control the political arena and who says political in the Muslim world automatically says religion too.
The stagnation that was the order of the day in most Arab countries made it difficult to predict any impending changes, until now, when the Arab Spring introduced a new world order – or is it a disorder -- with countries that were firmly counted as being pro-US, like Egypt for example, falling into the Islamist camp. 
Is the coming to power of the Islamists in Egypt, Tunisia and other countries reason to worry? Yes it is, but it is not the end of the world, as some had predicted. It simply means that some countries need to rethink their foreign policy strategy accordingly.
“We have to take into account the rise of Islam,” Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon’s Druze community told OilPrice.com.
Indeed, along with the coming changes one may also foresee more violence.  The continuing civil war Syria could spread into neighbouring Lebanon. And of course now the latest fighting in Gaza, where Israel’s bombing campaign has crystalized the Arab world, parts of which now are under new management with Islamist leadership, as rarely before.
As Egyptian president Ahmad Morsi told a crowd of supporter in Cairo last week, “Egypt will not stand idly by and watch the people in Gaza being killed. Today’s Egypt is not the same as the Egypt of yesterday.”
The fighting in Gaza is also raising fears of a new ground offensive by Israel, where retaliating to rockets fired by Hamas, Israel launched a major operation dropping bombs on hundreds of targets. Of course what most media outlets fail to mention when they talk about terrorist acts by Hamas is that there would be no reason for these terrorist acts if Israel did not continue its occupation of Palestinian lands and its siege of Gaza.
By. Claude Salhani
Claude Salhani, a specialist in conflict resolution, is an independent journalist, political analyst and author of several books on the region. His latest book, 'Islam Without a Veil,' is published by Potomac Books. He tweets @claudesalhani.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re
Post a Comment
Read more

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has
Post a Comment
Read more

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif
1 comment
Read more