Sudan and South Sudan leaderships to hold talks

Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir and his South Sudanese counterpart Salva Kiir are due to meet in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa tomorrow (4 January), as part of an African Union-hosted summit to attempt to overcome obstacles preventing the implementation of a landmark agreement on oil and security signed between the two nations in September 2012.

Both leaders have said they want to establish the demilitarised zone that formed a major part of the September agreement; however, neither side has yet moved its armed forces out of the area demarcated following months of negotiations. Successful implementation of the demilitarised zone and associated security agreements is the bedrock on which the resumption of oil exports rests. Discussions had become entangled on the contentious issue of the South's alleged support for the rebels currently waging an insurgency in Sudan's southern states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) was a component of South Sudan's army during the second civil war with Sudan, which ended in 2005, and previous talks have failed over Sudan's insistence that South Sudan cuts off its support for the rebels, support it has repeatedly denied.

Reports from the latest round of talks in early December 2012 indicated that Sudan had expanded these demands and was now calling on South Sudan to actively disarm SPLM-N fighters, which South Sudanese president Kiir has described as an "impossible mission". Meanwhile, South Sudan has called for the rebels to be included in the security agreement due to their control of large areas of the border, a position Sudan has staunchly rejected.

Direct negotiations between Bashir and Kiir have typically pushed the protracted negotiations between the two countries forwards, and some rhetorical progress can be expected from this summit. Nonetheless, the main problem lies in the details of implementation, a task delegated to officials whose scope of action is heavily constrained by domestic power politics. Both leaders face powerful factions within their governments and militaries that are opposed to peace; these factions have been strengthened by the precarious political position the two presidents have found themselves in due to the dire economic conditions stemming from the oil shutdown. Kiir's position is the weaker of the two due to South Sudan's overwhelming budgetary reliance on oil revenues, and his hold on power has shown signs of weakening in recent months. Bashi

r is aware of this, and has attempted to bolster his own position among regime hardliners in Khartoum by pushing Kiir towards making concessions regarding the SPLM-N that he cannot keep.

FORECAST

Although an eventual resumption of oil supplies is likely, the security foundations on which any agreement must rest will remain extremely precarious.

(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)

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