Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing to several audiences as he tries to exploit the crisis in Syria and convince the Russian periphery that his country is stronger than it actually is. And he must do all this while managing Russia's domestic problems.
On Wednesday, Putin published an op-ed in The New York Times, in which he reflected on Russia's proposal to remove chemical weapons from Syria -- an article that came one day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. He also discussed Russia's intent to protect international law and the dangers of U.S. military intervention in Syria.
But it was Putin's parting words that grabbed the attention of the U.S. media. He explicitly criticized American exceptionalism, saying that it is "extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional," adding that "we are all different" and that "we must not forget that God created us equal."
His intentions behind writing the op-ed were manifold. He wanted the American public and the American government to question President Barack Obama's motivations for intervening in Syria. Thus, he stoked the debate in the United States about what the country's international role should be. Moreover, Putin wanted to make the international community consider what its definition of global power is and how the United States should act in being one. In other words, he asked the international community if it viewed or accepted the United States as exceptional.
In recent years, Putin has attempted to redefine what it means to be a global power. The Russian leader knows his country can never compete with the United States economically, militarily or politically on a global scale. However, if he can alter what it means to be powerful, Russia could be seen as an alternative superpower to the United States.
We can see these efforts playing out in the Syria crisis. Russia is trying to be the country that negotiates a solution. And though it is unclear what that solution will be, Moscow wants the rest of the world to see it as more desirable than U.S.-led military intervention.
Russia hopes this new definition of global power will be noticed at home. As Stratfor has noted, Russia is attempting to increase its influence in its periphery -- mainly in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Several important decisions concerning these regions will soon be made, including decisions on the EU's Eastern Partnership memberships in November, and Russia wants to present itself as more influential than the West. As the economic and political crisis deepens in Europe, and with NATO going through an identity crisis, Moscow could benefit from being seen as a viable alternative to a weakened Brussels.
Putin is selling the same message domestically. Currently the Kremlin's political and social control of the country is starting to weaken, so now is the ideal time for the president to project an image of strength.
Indeed, there are some trends that Putin can no longer ignore. Over the past two days, Putin has met with his economic and financial teams in the Kremlin to look at the Russian economy through 2016. Put simply, the Russian economy is starting to weaken again, mostly because of reduced industrial output and a decline in investment and consumer spending. The president announced the Kremlin would cut the government's budget by at least 5 percent (starting this year) for the next three years. He also said that in 2014 the government will run a budget deficit.
Putin wants to show that his government can control a poor economic showing. Thus he is giving in to several demands made by the Russia people, including freezing price hikes on utilities and transportation, enacting stimulus plans, directing oil revenue injections into the budget and keeping budgets intact for programs like pensions and education grants. But all these responses cannot hide the fact that the Russian government has realized downward trends in industry and investment probably will continue for the foreseeable future.
Though the Russian media has reported on this negative trend over the past few months, Putin's announcement of the dire measures the Kremlin will now have to take has been mostly overshadowed inside of Russia by Moscow's other focus: Syria. The diversion will not last long because the effects of a weakening Russian economy are being felt across the country. Putin can make a strong show of Russia's re-emergence as a global power over the Syria issue, but ultimately it is still a bluff. Not only is Russia's ability to resolve the Syria crisis still in question, but also a foundational piece of Russia's power -- economic stability -- is starting to falter once again.
Read more: Putin Plays Up Russian Strength | Stratfor
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