Germany's Next Government

Germany's Christian Democratic Union, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Party formally began negotiations Oct. 23 on the formation of the so-called grand coalition, which last ruled Germany between 2005 and 2009. The parties hope to have a new government in place by late December. Coalition talks will not be without their stresses, but a revival of the grand coalition is likely. Once in place, the coalition would have a relatively easy time getting policies through parliament. In the lower house the coalition, which would control 504 of 631 seats, would face the weakest opposition in decades. In the upper house, which represents the German federal states, the coalition would not have a majority. However, control of the upper house, the Bundesrat, is not as vital because the Bundesrat does not vote on all matters put before the parliament -- for instance, it does not vote on matters concerning the European Union. (Measures that went as far as constitutional change would require the approval of both houses.)

The long-standing rivalry between Germany's two largest parties, the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party, is a potential threat to the longevity of the likely future government. Bridging the ideological gap between the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union on the center-right and the Social Democratic Party on the center-left will be a challenge and will lead to numerous coalition disputes, particularly if the economic crisis in Germany worsens considerably. However, once the grand coalition has defined a common position, it could implement policies with strong parliamentary backing, which will probably prove valuable in the coming years of the European crisis.

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