Kuwait: The Saudis' Key Ally at a Difficult Time

Summary

There are reports that Kuwait is the frontrunner to fill the U.N. Security Council seat rejected by Saudi Arabia. If true, it would benefit Riyadh and could in fact be part of Saudi Arabia's strategy. The Saudis rejected the seat Oct. 18 as part of their effort to pursue a more assertive foreign policy. The geopolitical interests of Kuwait, an ally of Saudi Arabia for more than a century, align with those of the Saudis. However, Kuwait will take a softer stance while the Saudi kingdom becomes more hawkish.

Analysis

In an Oct. 23 Reuters report, the French ambassador to the U.N. acknowledged that there is no agreed upon procedure on how to fill a vacancy on the Security Council, since a state has never before rejected a seat. The British envoy to the U.N. alluded to the possibility that the Saudis could still reverse their stance, but speculation among top foreign diplomats at the U.N. suggests Kuwait is the likely replacement for the two-year term. Though the Kuwaiti ambassador to the U.N. was reportedly eager to secure the seat, it is not clear that his country would get it because the Saudis' replacement would need the backing of the Asia-Pacific bloc as well as two-thirds support from the 193-member General Assembly.

It would be in Riyadh's interest for Kuwait to assume the seat. Among all Gulf Cooperation Council states, Kuwait is the closest to Saudi Arabia. Qatar has been trying to rival the Saudi kingdom, while Oman has its unique relations with Iran. The United Arab Emirates also has to balance between Riyadh and Tehran, while Bahrain is dependent on Riyadh.

That leaves Kuwait, with which Saudi Arabia has a long history of close relations. When the Second Saudi state (1824-1891) collapsed, the remnants of al-Saud sought refuge in Kuwait. From there, the founder of the modern kingdom, King Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman al-Saud, launched his campaign to conquer the lands his forefathers had ruled and more. Besides this history, Kuwait, a mostly Sunni state, has a sizable population that adheres to the Salafist sect of Islam that is predominant in Saudi Arabia.

As a fellow Sunni Arab state in the Persian Gulf with considerable energy resources, Kuwait sees itself in the Saudi camp, especially when it comes to the geopolitical sectarian dynamics bearing down on the Gulf Arab states. Still, Kuwait is also quite different from Saudi Arabia in both domestic politics and international relations.

Domestically, the Kuwaiti emirate has taken up parliamentary democracy for a few decades, but the ruling family has been able to maintain the advantage. A key reason is that Kuwaiti society has been highly fragmented with Salafists, pro-regime tribes, the Muslim Brotherhood, liberal forces and Shiite forces all competing with one another. On the sectarian front, Kuwait has a sizable Shiite population, with as many as 30 percent of the population subscribing to the minority sect of Islam.

Not only have the Kuwaiti leaders managed to use the Shia against the Sunnis to their advantage, but they also have been able to largely isolate their Shiite population from the influence of Iran. As a result, Tehran over the decades has been unable to establish any meaningful influence with the Shia of Kuwait. In fact, Kuwait, despite its proximity to Iraq, has been able to remain insulated from any fallout from the empowerment of the Iraqi Shia since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Thus Kuwait, while firmly aligned with Saudi Arabia, is able to deal with Arab Shia and, by extension, Iran. This kind of leverage benefits the Saudis while they try to be more assertive on the issue of U.S.-Iranian diplomatic engagement. At a time when Saudi Arabia is taking an aggressive stance against the Iranians and their Arab Shia allies, it cannot afford to look soft, but it also needs to keep channels open -- a purpose that Kuwait can fulfill.

Kuwait has also had a close relationship with the United States, especially since the 1991 Gulf War in which the United States freed the country from Iraqi occupation. The Kuwaitis can also serve as a channel to the Americans while the Saudis take up a tougher stance toward Washington. For these reasons, Saudi Arabia is likely to be behind the move to have Kuwait assume the Security Council seat that Riyadh declined.

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