Militants likely to target political rallies in run-up to 2014 Indian election

EVENT

At least six people were killed in a co-ordinated improvised explosive device (IED) attack on an opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rally yesterday (27 October) in Patna, Bihar.

Five IEDs detonated at the rally venue, Gandhi Maidan, while another two exploded at the nearby Patna Junction railway station over a three-hour period. No group has claimed responsibility, but police have said that a suspect arrested after the attack could be a member of the homegrown group Indian Mujahedeen (IM). The attack does fit the group's capability level and modus operandi - low-intensity IEDs in public spaces. Moreover, Narendra Modi, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 general election, attended the high-profile rally. Modi, who has been serving as chief minister of Gujarat since 2001, was criticised for his leadership during the 2002 Gujarat riots, in which around 800 Muslims were killed.
FORECAST

The attack in Patna is significant for several reasons. Firstly, if it were proven that IM was behind the attack, it would indicate that the group has recovered to some extent from the loss of one of its senior leaders, Yasin Bhatkal, who was arrested earlier this year in Bihar. Secondly, it underlines that militants will probably seek to target election rallies as campaigning for the 2014 election intensifies. BJP rallies are more likely to be targeted in by militant Islamist groups because of the party's Hindu nationalist credentials and because of Modi's association with the Gujarat riots. However, rallies organised by other parties, such as the ruling Congress party, are also likely to be targeted. Rallies are particularly vulnerable to IED attacks because of the sheer number of attendees, making it nearly impossible for police to secure venues comprehensively. With larger rallies likely in the run-up to the election, this will be a heightened risk over the next six months.

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