Summary
Recent reports of South Korean shipbuilding and naval plans demonstrate that the country's maritime ambitions are far greater than simply focusing on the threat from North Korea. According to a Defense News report that cited a South Korean navy source, as well as recent comments by Rep. Chung Hee Soo of the ruling Saenuri Party, Seoul is seriously considering greatly expanding its blue-water maritime capabilities. Several challenges lie ahead -- difficulties developing or acquiring needed technology, the ever-present danger from North Korea and fiscal constraints -- but South Korea's long-term interests are closely linked to the sea.
Analysis
The South Korean navy already had plans to commission three more highly capable destroyers by 2023 and to greatly enhance its subsurface fleet with larger, more powerful submarines. However, recent reports indicate that the South Koreans are also seeking to build the second ship of the Dokdo-class landing platform helicopter ship before 2019 with a ski ramp in order to launch fixed-wing aircraft. Furthermore, Seoul is exploring the possibility of building two 30,000-ton light aircraft carriers between 2028 and 2036.
Though the South Korean military remains fixated on the threat across the demilitarized zone, it is also increasingly pursuing ambitious maritime goals. It is important to remember that historically, forces emanating from China and Japan have threatened Korea. Indeed, the Koreans had to combat Japanese fleets during the Japanese invasions of Korea between 1592 and 1598. To that end, maintaining the maritime capability to prevent an amphibious landing on the Korean Peninsula is also a key mission of the South Korean military.
As the Chinese continue their extensive naval modernization and the Japanese pursue their military normalization, the South Koreans are determined not to be left behind. South Korea and Japan continue to be locked in a largely maritime territorial dispute over the Dokdo Islands (known as the Takeshima Islands in Japan). Furthermore, with explosive economic growth in the 1970s as well as its status as a peninsula with a virtually closed land border, South Korea is also currently entirely dependent on sea-lanes of trade and communication for its survival. And as a major trading power at a time when the United States is pursuing a closer military relationship with its regional maritime competitor, Japan, South Korea has further reason to bolster its naval capability.
Add the fact that South Korea's military superiority over the North is continuing to grow and it is easy to see why the South, part of a peninsular region that has historically prioritized the development of its land forces, is increasingly devoting resources to shipbuilding. That is not to say that the reported naval ships to be built cannot be useful against the North, but such expensive vessels are not the most efficient use of resources to be used against the North Korean threat. Already the South employs cruise missiles and fighter-bombers with the range to strike targets across the breadth and length of North Korea. In addition, the larger, 3,000-ton submarines the South Korean navy is building are better suited to blue-water operations than the 1,800-ton submarines currently in use.
For all South Korea's ambitious plans, significant obstacles remain. Increased tensions with North Korea could force Seoul to shift its focus and resources to its land and air forces. The South could also encounter problems in the development of the indigenous technologies it is pursuing to equip its future vessels, and it could face disagreements in negotiations with foreign partners, particularly the United States, in fielding the technologies Seoul does not plan to develop itself, such as improved Aegis radar and vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. However, the greatest obstacle remains the tight fiscal situation at a time of economic uncertainty. This is abundantly highlighted in the clash over the cost of a new fighter between the South Korean Defense Acquisition Program Agency and Finance Ministry on one side and the South Korean air force on the other.
While constraints may force the South Koreans to temporarily delay or moderate their maritime ambitions, South Korea remains a country whose fate and national interests are closely tied to the sea. Forced to disproportionately allocate resources to its land forces due to the crisis on the peninsula, the South Koreans will increasingly seek to strengthen their blue-water capabilities in response to the developing Chinese and Japanese naval programs.
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