A civil servant stores boxes containing ballots for Honduras' Nov. 24 general election. (ORLANDO SIERRA/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
Despite intense rhetoric in the presidential campaign, a major change in Honduran foreign policy is unlikely, regardless of who wins. The race, which will be decided Nov. 24, has narrowed into a contest between Juan Orlando Hernandez of the conservative ruling National Party and Xiomara Castro of the leftist coalition Liberty and Refoundation (known as Libre). If elected, Castro, who is married to former President Manuel Zelaya, has promised to move the country to the political left. However, the next president's political options will be limited by the country's extreme levels of criminal violence and depleted public finances.
Analysis
The Honduran general election will be the first since the resolution of the country's 2009 political crisis, which was sparked by a coup and the forced exile of Zelaya in June of that year. The ousted president's followers engineered months of disruptive protests, culminating in Zelaya's return to Honduras in 2011. Four years after the coup, the former president's wife gives the political left a second chance in Honduras as she tries to break the statistical tie with current President Porfirio Lobo Sosa's handpicked successor.
Honduras' tenuous internal security and reliance on foreign capital mean that the election will not fundamentally alter its most important foreign relationship, which is with the United States. Although it is small geographically and economically, Honduras is part of the strategically important Caribbean Basin. Central America is located near the maritime corridors connecting the United States' energy and agricultural centers to global markets. These factors spurred the United States to frequently intervene militarily in Central America prior to World War II and to support anti-communist governments there during the Cold War.
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After the fall of the Soviet Union, the primary U.S. interests in Honduras and the rest of Central America shifted to trade and counternarcotics. The United States is Honduras' largest trading partner by a wide margin and provides significant security assistance, particularly against cocaine trafficking and urban gangs.
The country's domestic security is overwhelmingly the main issue for the president. Honduras has the highest homicide rate in the world, at about 86 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Central American gangs such as MS-13 and Calle 18 are responsible for killings, kidnappings and extortion across the country. The flow of South American cocaine to the United States through Honduras has also triggered much of the violence. Given the lack of other options, the next administration will continue to rely on material assistance, intelligence and training from the United States to address these problems.
Another issue is the country's precarious finances. Honduras faces an estimated budget deficit of about 6 percent of its $18.5 billion gross domestic product in 2013, and it has few reliable sources of loans. Honduras will most likely continue relying on the International Monetary Fund and other international organizations for new lines of credit.
Either presidential candidate would be forced to follow a similar international political path if elected -- maintaining a rudimentary level of national security and shoring up state funds -- but their domestic actions would differ. Hernandez is running on a pro-business, law-and-order platform similar to that of his predecessor. Lobo emphasized the creation of a nationwide gendarmerie, the Military Police for Public Order, and frequently deployed the army on patrols to put pressure on criminal groups.
Castro, on the other hand, has publicly criticized the government's emphasis on using the military as a law enforcement body, undoubtedly because of the military's role in her husband's overthrow. However, there are few alternatives for augmenting the ineffective civilian police forces. Given the imperative to improve security, Libre may find itself relying on a politically hostile military to achieve its aims.
Libre may also attempt redistributive policies such as land reform. Such actions will meet resistance from Honduras' conservative business elite and from the armed forces. Their opposition would likely limit how much Castro could employ populist measures such as nationalizing businesses or expropriating land. Given the military's traditional ties with the Honduran political elite, Libre might hesitate in enacting policies that could create another political dispute.
Ultimately, the constraints on the presidency are too great to allow for a major shift in the country's political direction, particularly if Castro is elected. Future Honduran leaders will thus remain focused on the country's substantial internal difficulties for the foreseeable future.
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