Summary
With its economic and security interests in the Arctic growing, Russia is increasingly looking to its military to enforce its claims in the region. Russian state media announced Oct. 29 that Russian airborne assault forces and military transport aviation units had conducted an exercise in the Arctic. The exercise came shortly after Russian special operations forces completed their first training sessions in Arctic warfare earlier in the month. The increased pace of Arctic military exercises, particularly centered on the Russian Kola Peninsula, are part of the announced Russian goal of deploying by 2020 a combined arms force, including military, border and coast guard units, to protect its rising political and economic interests in the Arctic.
Analysis
The Russian military, particularly the navy, is already quite capable in the Arctic. Its largest and most capable fleet is the Northern Fleet, whose headquarters is at Severomorsk. Moscow plans to reinforce its military in the Arctic with two Arctic infantry brigades and has even raised the possibility of establishing an enhanced fighter presence there by basing MiG-31 long-range interceptors at the Rogachevo Arctic base on the island of Novaya Zemlya. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in September that Russia would rebuild a naval base in the Arctic and restart naval patrols in the region.
The Arctic is expected to grow more important in the coming decades as climate change makes natural resources and transport routes more accessible. Only five years ago there were no ships that transited the corridor, while 495 ships have received permission to travel the Northern Sea Route this year. In addition, the Arctic region is believed to have more than a fifth of the world's undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. In the long term, these resources may steadily be opened to exploitation, drawing the attention not only of Russia but of other energy-hungry countries as well.
Anticipating these developments, Russia is striving to improve its military position to better pursue its Arctic claims. However, geographic, technological and financial constraints have often forced Moscow to back off its ambitious military plans for the Arctic. Indeed, the bulk of recent Russian military developments in the Arctic should be seen more as military posturing than concrete developments that alter the regional balance. But despite Russia's limitations, the overall trend remains clearly tilted toward a steady increase in the Russian military presence in the Arctic.
It is also important to remember that Russia is not the only country seeking to bolster its military force posture in the Arctic. For instance, Norway has already made substantial moves at Arctic militarization, including setting up a special Arctic battalion. To a lesser degree, Canada and the United States have made preparations for the Arctic. Canadian fighter jets and patrol aircraft are regularly deployed to monitor the Arctic region, and Canada, among other developments, recently finished increasing the size of its Ranger force -- which is equipped for Arctic operations -- to 5,000 personnel from 4,100. However, Maj. Gen. Alan Howard, assistant chief of the land staff of the Canadian army, has already complained that the army has lost the ability to operate in the Arctic due to its recent focus on operations in Afghanistan.
As the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute noted on a policy brief in 2012, Arctic security concerns play only a minor role in overall U.S. defense policy. Of course, the United States continues to maintain a considerable military presence in or near the Arctic, but it is principally geared toward the air and missile defense mission of the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Only a select few U.S. Coast Guard aircraft are based on Kodiak Island to conduct monitoring operations over the Arctic, and though many units in the U.S. military are trained for Arctic warfare, the United States does not maintain a sizable land unit specifically designed to operate in the Arctic.
Russia already operates the vast majority of the world's icebreakers. It has an estimated $8 trillion worth of energy resources in its Arctic territory -- 45 billion barrels of oil and 23 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. And it has an enormous Arctic coastline along which it has operated for decades. Simply put, Russia has been and will likely remain one of the leading claimants on the Arctic and will not shy away from using considerable military posturing to pursue its Arctic claims.
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