Taiwan's Dwindling Alliances

On Nov. 18, Taipei cut diplomatic ties with Gambia three days after Gambian President Yahya Jammeh announced he would cut ties with Taiwan. Gambia is the first nation to cease its recognition of Taiwan since President Ma Ying-jeou took power in 2008. Though it was unexpected, the move follows a series of similar decisions among Taiwan's 22 other allies at a time when Taipei has been rebalancing its relations with China. Earlier in November, Sao Tome and Principe announced it would establish a trade mission to China to boost bilateral economic cooperation. This follows several requests believed to have been made by some Central American nations to re-establish diplomatic ties with China. Beijing supposedly turned down their offers because it did not want to disrupt what progress it had made in improving cross-strait relations with Taiwan. It also wanted to retain some leverage over Taipei in case the current detente falls apart.

The withdrawal of diplomatic relations with Gambia -- or with other marginally important allies -- may have little material impact on Taiwan. They are not a critical component of Taiwanese strategy or Taipei's competition against Beijing, and most of Taiwan's allies in Central America, Africa and the Asia-Pacific are important only inasmuch as they legitimize Taiwan's claim to "One China." Taipei's problem is that with each ally it loses, it has a harder time maintaining its international position. Given that China is constantly expanding its own influence, this could jeopardize the progress that has been made in balancing Taiwan's foreign status and its national identity.

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