Libya's Latest Oil Standoff

Libyan protesters gather Dec. 13 in Tripoli to call for an end to a monthslong blockade of oil terminals by armed groups. (MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

International oil markets are apprehensive about ongoing negotiations in Libya, where political and security concerns ranging from labor protests to campaigns for federalism brought oil production nearly to a standstill in August. For the past few months, terminals in the eastern cities of Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Zueitina, which at 600,000 barrels of crude per day account for 60 percent of total exports, have been offline almost continuously, depriving the country of much-needed revenue. Though local tribal leaders and the country's nominal central authority are confident that eastern Libyan oil production will restart Dec. 15, Tripoli still faces significant challenges in guaranteeing and protecting its energy industry.

Analysis

At the center of the dispute is former rebel commander-turned-regional Petroleum Facilities Guard commander Ibrahim Jadhran, who joined the very protests he was ordered to end in September. Working with other groups, Jadhran has been able to keep eastern Libyan oil export facilities offline, much to the chagrin of the beleaguered central government in Tripoli. On several occasions since August, the government has claimed that oil would be brought back online imminently, but each time Jadhran's protests continued. In fact, his demands have become more ambitious; initially, he demanded more pay for security personnel at oil facilities but he is now calling for an autonomous government in eastern Libya with a greater share of national oil revenues.

After days of negotiations with the central government, elders from Libya's eastern Magharba tribe announced Dec. 10 that they would withdraw their support for Jadhran and his militia if the blockade of oil terminals remained in place. Tripoli has not yet demonstrated a willingness or ability to forcefully end the country's frequent oil strikes and halts in production; so far, their strongest show of force to date was dispatching Jadhran and his Petroleum Facility Guard unit to end the protests he eventually commandeered. But Libya's larger tribal groupings, including the Marghaba, often are divided internally, so it is unclear what they can do to force Jadhran's hand.

Tripoli's incentives for ending the halt in eastern oil production and exports are clear: Libya's legislature, the General National Congress, estimates that some $8 billion in potential revenue has been lost since August, and some parts of the country such as Tripoli and Benghazi suffered from fuel and power shortages this week. Rumors abound that the government permitted the shortages in order to turn the public against the protesters, though citizens are growing increasingly frustrated with the government now as well. Tripoli has said production will resume, with rumors that oil traders have been invited to move tankers into Libyan waters in preparation for loading ships with Libyan crude.

But Jadhran has proved to be an intractable adversary with a desire for embarrassing Prime Minister Ali Zeidan and the government in Tripoli. His demands for greater regional autonomy and increased profit-sharing with Libya's regional governments are popular in the east, but they are anathema to residents of Tripoli and other parts of the country. Concessions by Tripoli will not come without a price, even as the legislature tries to negotiate an end to ongoing threats against oil production in western Libya's restive Amazigh and southern tribal regions. Attempts to remove Jadhran by force also risk clashes that could damage critical export infrastructure and inadvertently extend the country's export hiatus. It could also incite a broader domestic conflict between forces opposed to the government.

Domestic pressures suggest a continued deadlock over the status of eastern Libyan crude exports, but even if Tripoli and Jadhran reach an accommodation, there are several additional tribal, militant and political groups that will try to bring Libyan oil offline in their own dealings with the legislature. Tripoli's greatest risk in its current conflict with Jadhran is that if security forces eliminate peaceful, nonviolent protests and remove blockades at export terminals, they may inadvertently invite violent reprisals, which could further halt production and damage transport and export infrastructure.

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif

ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Search This Blog