A North Korean soldier stands guard on the Yalu River on the Chinese border Dec. 17. (MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)
Analysis
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin said Dec. 17 that North Korea could take provocative military steps between January and early March, a time when U.S. and South Korean forces carry out several annual military exercises. Kim said his warnings were based on an assessment of North Korea's internal political situation and previous behavior. Kim said a statement by a ruling Saenuri Party lawmaker that North Korea is preparing for nuclear and missile tests was not correct, however. The comments followed reports that North Korea had spread leaflets over a South Korean-controlled island along the western maritime Northern Limit Line, threatening that the island would be bombarded.
Following the execution of Jang Song Thaek, the uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and formerly a key individual overseeing the transition of power from Kim Jong Il, numerous rumors and conjectures have swirled regarding what is happening inside North Korea and what Pyongyang may do next. Many have centered on the idea that North Korea's military is now reasserting its power and that Pyongyang may carry out military provocations against South Korea or resume long-range missile and nuclear testing.
It is not unusual for Pyongyang to use provocative actions to remind its neighbors that interference in its internal political affairs can have extreme and unwanted consequences, and Pyongyang may well be encouraging such speculation in light of Jang's purge. It is unlikely that South Korea, China or the United States are currently seeking to take advantage of perceived political instability in North Korea to destabilize the regime and nation, since none of these countries has an interest in a North Korean collapse at this time.
But North Korea also uses tests and threatening actions to reinforce its claim of self-reliance and to raise regional tensions before seeking negotiations with neighboring countries and the United States. It is possible that Pyongyang may be looking to restart international dialogue in the coming months to seek aid and potential foreign investment, allowing it to continue to wean itself from what it considers its overdependence on China. To this end, Pyongyang has already signaled that it is interested in restarting talks with South Korea about expanding operations at the joint Kaesong inter-Korean economic zone.
But for now, the North Korean regime is signaling that all is generally well at home. Kim Jong Un has resumed regular inspection tours, several members of Jang's entourage have been seen in public appearances with Kim (suggesting less a massive factional purge than the removal of a rival) and the North has said it will continue its path of economic reform and keep pursuing special economic zones for foreign investment. At the same time, leafleting a South Korean island certainly telegraphs that the North remains a potentially fierce competitor and is not in such dire trouble that it will give up its self-defense programs for foreign aid. Pyongyang is pursuing a delicate balance, but one it has long managed. The combination of a threatening posture and hope for future reform is usually enough to keep the United States, Japan and South Korea from threatening the North with military action, from cutting off at least some aid or from ignoring the North completely. And this allows Pyongyang to make the most of a weak hand.
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