Russia, Iran and U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Plans

The primary goal of the European Phased Adaptive Approach project, or EPAA, is to defend the United States and Europe against ballistic missiles from Iran. Given that, Russia's opposition does not seem to make sense. The trajectory of Russian ballistic missiles aimed at the United States is farther to the north, an arc closer to Iceland than Scotland and completely out of range of current European-based systems. Russia can also fire enough missiles to overwhelm the anticipated capacity of the European defensive shield, thereby rendering it ineffective.

Indeed, Russia was initially willing to cooperate with Europe and the United States in developing the missile defense shield, but such a liaison was unpalatable to the United States and much of NATO. The only other alternative to partnership, for Russia, is the cancellation of the program entirely. Iran's predicted detente with the West provides further fuel for Moscow's argument to do away with European ballistic missile defense. If Iran ceases to be a threat as a result of a diplomatic solution, it becomes increasingly hard to justify a defensive array oriented toward Iran.

Russia's main concern, however, is twofold. Regardless of a negotiated solution with Iran, Washington's pursuit of the EPAA secures an enduring footprint in Central and Eastern Europe, a region of direct interest to Russia as it seeks to reassert its presence and influence. Moscow resents Washington's meddling and is fearful of any attempt to contain its strategic ambition across its periphery. Additionally, while the Kremlin knows that European missile defense is no threat to Russia's strategic nuclear capability right now, one of the strengths of the EPAA is its capacity for evolution. Further phases of the EPAA will seek to deploy enhanced systems with greater area coverage and capability.

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