Disagreement Persists on Ethiopia's Planned Dam

The latest round of negotiations among Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia's planned Grand Renaissance Dam ended on Jan. 5 without the three sides reaching an agreement about how Egypt's concerns would be addressed. Ethiopia is planning to build the dam on a major tributary of the Nile River, the Blue Nile, which accounts for about 85 percent of the Nile River. While Ethiopia wants to move quickly on constructing the dam, which would house a 6,000-megawatt hydroelectric plant, Egypt is concerned that the dam's construction would threaten its water supply farther downstream.

Egypt's water supplies could be threatened in two ways. First, once the dam is constructed, a massive 74 billion cubic meter reservoir will need to be filled. Sudan and Egypt agreed in 1959 to a water-sharing agreement where Egypt and Sudan get a quota of 55.5 and 18.5 billion cubic meters annually, respectively, though Ethiopia claims the two countries do not consume their entire quota. The Nile River's annual discharge is only 84 billion cubic meters, which means the only way the two countries' quota levels can be maintained is if Ethiopia slowly fills up the reservoir over the course of nearly a decade. Otherwise, Egypt would have to find alternative sources of water through desalination or suspend irrigation projects and import agricultural products. Egypt has already claimed that the dam will reduce Sudan and Egypt's share by 18 billion cubic meters a year. Slowly filling up the reservoir is something Cairo could consent to if it had Egyptian (or perhaps international) engineers or managers overseeing parts of the dam's construction and initial filling. Under this scenario, any potential disruption to water supplies would not be permanent.

However, a more lasting threat could be if Addis Ababa plans to use the dam's reservoir for irrigation after it is constructed. While Addis Ababa has maintained they do not plan to use it for irrigation, doing so would reduce the amount of water available to Egypt via the Nile and Cairo has been reluctant to accept Addis Ababa's assurances on the matter. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have demographic profiles that will lead to massive population increases in the coming years, and water and agriculture consumption will only increase with the populations, placing both countries in a difficult position. Ultimately, Egypt does not possess the military strength to prevent the dam's construction if Ethiopia unilaterally decides to finish the dam, and Cairo will have to rely on the international community to prevent it.

Comments

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif

Search This Blog