Disagreement Persists on Ethiopia's Planned Dam

The latest round of negotiations among Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia's planned Grand Renaissance Dam ended on Jan. 5 without the three sides reaching an agreement about how Egypt's concerns would be addressed. Ethiopia is planning to build the dam on a major tributary of the Nile River, the Blue Nile, which accounts for about 85 percent of the Nile River. While Ethiopia wants to move quickly on constructing the dam, which would house a 6,000-megawatt hydroelectric plant, Egypt is concerned that the dam's construction would threaten its water supply farther downstream.

Egypt's water supplies could be threatened in two ways. First, once the dam is constructed, a massive 74 billion cubic meter reservoir will need to be filled. Sudan and Egypt agreed in 1959 to a water-sharing agreement where Egypt and Sudan get a quota of 55.5 and 18.5 billion cubic meters annually, respectively, though Ethiopia claims the two countries do not consume their entire quota. The Nile River's annual discharge is only 84 billion cubic meters, which means the only way the two countries' quota levels can be maintained is if Ethiopia slowly fills up the reservoir over the course of nearly a decade. Otherwise, Egypt would have to find alternative sources of water through desalination or suspend irrigation projects and import agricultural products. Egypt has already claimed that the dam will reduce Sudan and Egypt's share by 18 billion cubic meters a year. Slowly filling up the reservoir is something Cairo could consent to if it had Egyptian (or perhaps international) engineers or managers overseeing parts of the dam's construction and initial filling. Under this scenario, any potential disruption to water supplies would not be permanent.

However, a more lasting threat could be if Addis Ababa plans to use the dam's reservoir for irrigation after it is constructed. While Addis Ababa has maintained they do not plan to use it for irrigation, doing so would reduce the amount of water available to Egypt via the Nile and Cairo has been reluctant to accept Addis Ababa's assurances on the matter. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have demographic profiles that will lead to massive population increases in the coming years, and water and agriculture consumption will only increase with the populations, placing both countries in a difficult position. Ultimately, Egypt does not possess the military strength to prevent the dam's construction if Ethiopia unilaterally decides to finish the dam, and Cairo will have to rely on the international community to prevent it.

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