Jihadist-Rebel Clashes in Syria

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is ramping up its campaign in Iraq, it is finding itself increasingly threatened in Syria. Hundreds of rebels and ISIL fighters have died as part of the largest and most serious rift between rebel and al Qaeda-linked forces since the start of the Syrian civil war. Provoked by incessant raids, detentions, assassinations, mutilations and the imposition of strict rules on rebel-held territories, Jaish al-Mujahideen and the Syrian Revolutionaries Front attacked a number of ISIL positions in Aleppo and Idlib on Jan. 3. The rebel offensive against ISIL has led to the capture of many ISIL positions across northern Syria, causing the jihadist group to threaten a withdrawal from areas where it is fighting the al Assad regime if rebel attacks do not cease within 24 hours. The rift is understood to represent a blow to the ongoing fight against the Syrian regime, but ISIL has occasionally been so aggressive toward other rebel groups that a consensus has emerged that the group must be handled.

These events come at a time when the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has managed to secure the greatest extent of territory in Iraq since U.S. forces left the country. While these events represent significant gains for ISIL in Iraq, the fact that the group has suddenly found itself heavily committed on two fronts does not bode well for its long-term success. In a matter of days, the group has lost hundreds of fighters in combat across Syria and Iraq, an unsustainable rate of attrition for an organization that fields at most 15,000 fighters. However, given the nature and ideology of ISIL's leadership, it will be difficult for the group to concede its fight with Iraqi tribesmen and other Syrian rebels. This effectively ensures that ISIL will remain in conflict with practically all armed forces in Syria and Iraq, including Kurdish militias, regime forces, opposition groups and even Turkey. For all the dedication and motivation of its fighters, ISIL simply does not have the manpower or the force to overcome its innumerable enemies and achieve its end goals of establishing its version of an Islamic caliphate in Syria and Iraq.

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