A banner depicting Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov (R) and President Viktor Yanukovich behind prison bars Jan. 28. at an opposition protester camp in Independence Square in Kiev. (VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
The Ukrainian government has followed through with significant concessions to the opposition in a bid to defuse the ongoing political crisis that has spread throughout the country. Regardless of agreements made, profound challenges remain for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich as he tries to balance the demands of protesters, the hostility of right-wing fringe groups and mounting external pressure.
The Ukrainian parliament voted Jan. 28 to repeal the recently passed anti-protest laws that sparked demonstrations across the country, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov tendered his resignation on the same day. Although opposition leaders hailed the moves, the government still faces major constraints from the more radical demonstrators and from rival interests in shaping the country's political evolution.
Analysis
After the latest round of meetings between Yanukovich and the three main opposition leaders -- Vitali Klitschko of the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform party, Arseniy Yatsenyuk of the Fatherland party and Oleh Tyahnybok of the Svoboda party -- the government has followed through with several of the demands set by the opposition. Along with repealing the controversial anti-demonstration laws, the parliament will also vote on Jan. 29 whether to grant amnesty to protesters that were detained during demonstrations. Independent lawmaker Petro Poroshenko, rumored to be a candidate to replace Azarov as prime minister, called the moves "a step away from the abyss."
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However, Yanukovich is far from being in the clear. Despite the opposition applauding Azarov's resignation, demonstrations continue in central Kiev and elsewhere in the country, albeit in smaller form. Some protesters have said they will not leave the streets until Yanukovich himself resigns, calling for early presidential elections. Key opposition leaders such as Klitschko have remained unclear on whether they will insist on the president's resignation, one of the original demands of the protest movement. In contrast, right-wing elements of the demonstrations have been more intransigent and outspoken, with members of the Right Sector movement calling for a "complete change of power" and criticizing the more moderate elements of the opposition for not doing enough in this regard. This dynamic tension serves as a reminder that the three leaders who met with Yanukovich do not represent all the factions that are currently protesting.
The current president also has to deal with the increasingly delicate balance of Ukraine's foreign relationships, particularly with Russia and the West. Upon news of Azarov's resignation, a senior unnamed Russian official said that Moscow may reconsider its recent $15 billion loan to Ukraine (given to Kiev shortly after Yanukovich spurned the EU agreements) if the current government is removed. Conversely, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier followed the Russian announcement by saying that Azarov's resignation is the "starting point for compromise," showing the conflicting interests between Russia and the European Union -- led by Germany -- on Ukraine.
Given the current context, both Germany and Russia have limited means of influencing events as they unfold on the ground. Although both countries back opposing groups, many of the protesters on the streets in Ukraine -- especially the more radical elements -- are acting independently and not in concert with Moscow or Berlin. Dealing with these demonstrators is now the biggest issue for Yanukovich. Any potential compromise in the current political situation will require a consensus between the opposition groups and the foreign power brokers on how best to address the issue of radical protest elements.
In terms of broader strategic interests, Germany is interested in projecting influence in the European borderland states in much the same way as Russia. Berlin has tacitly supported the pro-EU Klitschko while Moscow has firmly backed Yanukovich, who has in turn shown his loyalty toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Even though Germany is not as directly interested or involved in Ukraine as Poland and the Baltic states are, the Bundestag has always supported the Eastern Partnership program and advocated Ukraine's signing of the key economic and political agreements the program entails.
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All being said, Berlin does not want its contention with Russia over Ukraine to escalate for a number of reasons. First, it would complicate Germany's relationship with Russia considerably; if there is wider chaos and destabilization in Ukraine, Moscow is likely to put quite a bit of blame on Germany because of its overt ties to Klitschko and other pro-EU groups. Second, Berlin is increasingly worried that the opposition can no longer be contained and is considering ways to reach a compromise that is acceptable without losing face. This interplay highlights one of Berlin's most significant foreign policy challenges: appeasing former Communist countries in the European Union that push for a stronger stance against Russia while preserving its own strategic relationship with Moscow.
From Putin's perspective, the Ukrainian crisis has shown that despite all of Russia's influence, it does not have decisive control over the political situation in the country. There is a domestic political element to the predicament that has revealed that neither Russia nor the European Union have overwhelming influence, certainly not to the point of being able to force certain outcomes on the ground. Both Moscow and Brussels have enough influence to prevent certain outcomes (such as Ukraine signing the EU agreements or joining Russia's Customs Union), but not to control the situation on the streets.
When it comes to resolving the Ukrainian crisis, both Russia and Germany know that a solution separate from the domestic players on the ground will not happen. This includes not only the government and opposition leaders, but also the protesters themselves. Russia knows, however, that the fallout from this current instability ultimately will be subject to Ukraine's broader geopolitical constraints that tie Kiev to Moscow, just as previous events like the Orange Revolution eventually gave way to a regime more cooperative with Russia. In the shorter term, there is the pressing concern of addressing the radical elements -- the demonstrators less willing to compromise than the opposition. The existence of these defiant factions creates concern not only for Yanukovich and the moderate opposition leaders attempting to manage the protests and demonstrate their own legitimacy, but also for Russia and Germany. Until these disparate elements are dealt with, there will not be a decisive end to Ukraine's ongoing political crisis.
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