Ukrainian policemen block a road in Kiev on Jan. 27. (ROB STOTHARD/Getty Images)
Summary
With an extraordinary session of parliament set for Jan. 28 to discuss the opposition's demands, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich is facing a crucial decision on how to resolve the political standoff. The opposition continued its calls for Yanukovich's resignation and early presidential elections as anti-government demonstrations continued throughout the country over the weekend. Regardless of how the domestic political situation plays out in Ukraine, the country and any leadership that represents it will continue to have to cooperate with both Russia and the European Union.
Analysis
Protests continued to spread over the weekend. Demonstrators are still blockading regional administrative buildings throughout the western and central part of the country, while cities in the east and south that are traditionally pro-Yanukovich began to experience protests as well.
Despite the protests' spread, they were notably less violent than they were earlier in the week when at least three people were killed during clashes with police. Demonstrators occupied several administrative buildings without security services forcibly confronting them. In the meantime, Defense Ministry officials have said the military will not intervene, suggesting that the Yanukovich administration has elected to concede rather than crack down further.
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Yanukovich gave the first signs of offering major concessions during meetings over the weekend with the three opposition leaders: Vitali Klitschko of the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform party, Arseniy Yatsenyuk of the Fatherland party and Oleh Tyahnybok of the Svoboda party. During talks on Jan. 25, Yanukovich offered to appoint Yatsenyuk as prime minister and Klitschko as deputy prime minister and to release demonstrators who have been detained -- a significant softening of his previous position. However, sensing the momentum behind the protest movement, the opposition leaders turned down Yanukovich's proposal. While they acknowledged Yanukovich's willingness to compromise, they announced to crowds gathered in Kiev's Independence Square that his offer was insufficient and that they would not stop short of Yanukovich's resignation and early presidential elections, as well as the repealing of the anti-protest laws passed Jan. 16 that led to the current level of protests.
It is these conditions that will be discussed at the Jan. 28 extraordinary session of parliament and that will likely mark a turning point in the Ukrainian political crisis. Thus far the demonstrators have refrained from taking overly aggressive action, voluntarily ending their occupation of the Justice Ministry and certain other buildings throughout central Kiev. However, they said their actions would escalate and turn violent if their demands were not met at the Jan. 28 session, and a key opposition figure, Yuri Lutsenko, said protests would move closer to the parliament building if the meeting fails.
Beyond domestic politics, the country remains a key point of geopolitical contention between the European Union and Russia, as evidenced by both powers' attempts to shape the ongoing crisis. In fact, Ukraine will be the most important and most controversial topic on the agenda of the EU-Russia summit that will be held Jan. 28 in Brussels. Regardless of whether Yanukovich agrees to step down, Russia is still a major player that will need to be dealt with given its substantial connections to many influential economic, political and security players in the country.
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Furthermore, the last pro-Western regime in Ukraine, led by Viktor Yushchenko, found out what it meant to turn away from Russia and toward the European Union and NATO. Moscow responded with natural gas cutoffs, among other measures, that resulted in severe economic and political pain. Similarly, Yanukovich's government was met with selective trade restrictions -- with the threat of more -- when it even considered moving forward with EU deals.
With the ability to inflict pain or provide benefits through discounted natural gas and loans, Russia will have significant leverage over any potential Ukrainian government. At the same time, the European Union and those who support Ukraine's orientation toward Brussels have shown that they have significant influence in the country, though they are far from having a common position beyond calling for the end of violence. Yanukovich showed that the country cannot turn away from the European Union -- the proof is evident in the repercussions on the ground. Ultimately, any Ukrainian government has to cooperate with both Brussels and Moscow to be able to survive. That is the constraint that any Ukrainian leader -- be it Yanukovich, the opposition figures or anyone else -- will find themselves in moving forward.
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