Skip to main content

Ukraine: Dwindling Russian Support Could Unseat Yanukovich



Demonstrators with Ukrainian flags and a poster calling Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich a thief stage a solidarity protest in Brussels on Feb. 20. JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images

Analysis


Negotiations in Ukraine are evolving quickly, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's position appears increasingly precarious. Yanukovich has agreed to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, according to a Western-mediated plan, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Feb. 20. The announcement comes after Yanukovich held talks with the Polish, German and French foreign ministers following three days of increased violence in Kiev.

The foreign ministers have also spoken with the moderate opposition leaders. However, the French and Polish foreign ministers have said that there is still no agreement between the sides and that they are returning to talk to Yanukovich.

In addition to elections, the Western-mediated plan includes an interim government and constitutional reform. The agreement to hold new presidential elections would be a large concession by Yanukovich, who has flirted with the idea of parliamentary elections but has staunchly resisted resigning from his own post.

Click to Enlarge


Yanukovich is likely to set conditions for the elections -- such as holding them later in the year -- which is why the moderate opposition leaders are rejecting the offer. Moreover, Yanukovich may believe that the radical opposition, which is still amassed in Independence Square, could wreck any truce or agreement. (On Feb. 19, when the moderate opposition and Yanukovich reached a potential agreement, the radical opposition struck up violence in the streets again, quickly breaking the truce.) In the meantime, Yanukovich can claim he gave negotiations an honest chance. Stratfor will be watching for what terms the foreign ministers are taking back to Yanukovich from the moderate opposition leaders and whether the radical opposition leaders will sign on to any deal they did not negotiate.

Even more important is what Russia's reaction to a Western-mediated agreement will be. Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev was clear earlier Feb. 20 that Moscow was reconsidering its loyalty to the Yanukovich presidency. Apparently the Kremlin is uncertain about the Ukrainian president's ability to control the country. In the past few hours, there has been a flurry of calls between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and between Putin and Yanukovich. The most pressing issue is whether Russia has signed on to a plan to help remove Yanukovich and bring about new elections.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif