Ukraine: Dwindling Russian Support Could Unseat Yanukovich

Demonstrators with Ukrainian flags and a poster calling Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich a thief stage a solidarity protest in Brussels on Feb. 20. JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images

Analysis

Negotiations in Ukraine are evolving quickly, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's position appears increasingly precarious. Yanukovich has agreed to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, according to a Western-mediated plan, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Feb. 20. The announcement comes after Yanukovich held talks with the Polish, German and French foreign ministers following three days of increased violence in Kiev.

The foreign ministers have also spoken with the moderate opposition leaders. However, the French and Polish foreign ministers have said that there is still no agreement between the sides and that they are returning to talk to Yanukovich.

In addition to elections, the Western-mediated plan includes an interim government and constitutional reform. The agreement to hold new presidential elections would be a large concession by Yanukovich, who has flirted with the idea of parliamentary elections but has staunchly resisted resigning from his own post.

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Yanukovich is likely to set conditions for the elections -- such as holding them later in the year -- which is why the moderate opposition leaders are rejecting the offer. Moreover, Yanukovich may believe that the radical opposition, which is still amassed in Independence Square, could wreck any truce or agreement. (On Feb. 19, when the moderate opposition and Yanukovich reached a potential agreement, the radical opposition struck up violence in the streets again, quickly breaking the truce.) In the meantime, Yanukovich can claim he gave negotiations an honest chance. Stratfor will be watching for what terms the foreign ministers are taking back to Yanukovich from the moderate opposition leaders and whether the radical opposition leaders will sign on to any deal they did not negotiate.

Even more important is what Russia's reaction to a Western-mediated agreement will be. Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev was clear earlier Feb. 20 that Moscow was reconsidering its loyalty to the Yanukovich presidency. Apparently the Kremlin is uncertain about the Ukrainian president's ability to control the country. In the past few hours, there has been a flurry of calls between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and between Putin and Yanukovich. The most pressing issue is whether Russia has signed on to a plan to help remove Yanukovich and bring about new elections.

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