Summary
Venezuelans gathered in the streets in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, Feb. 22, in the third major protest in 10 days. Demonstrations are ongoing in Caracas and throughout the country, including in San Cristobal, Valencia and Maracaibo. The list of grievances is long, but there is no single unifying theme behind the protests beyond a staunch rejection of the status quo in Venezuela. The country's leadership appears to be holding on, but it is showing signs of stress.
Analysis
The energetic Venezuelan rumor mill is filled with reports that Cuban troops have arrived in the country to help manage the protests, but such rumors are sketchy at best. Several photos of Venezuelan-owned Shaanxi Y-8 aircraft with troops offloading have been published in social media. The first such image was posted Feb. 16, and the most recent may show troop movements as recently as Feb. 21. The photos show troops carrying substantial baggage, as if prepared for a long stay. There is nothing in the photos that clearly indicates that the soldiers are Cuban as opposed to Venezuelan, but the arrival of Cubans to aid the Venezuelans would not be outside the realm of expectation. The two militaries cooperate closely, and Cuba maintains a strong interest in the stability of the Venezuelan regime.
What is clear at this point is that while the unrest is generally loosely organized, anger is widespread and intense enough to mobilize a broad swath of Venezuelans. But in a country as polarized as Venezuela, even the continuous appearance of tens of thousands of protesters is not a clear indication of widespread loss of support. The base of voters who supported the election of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in many cases have little in common with the opposition, and most have benefited in some way from the redistributive policies of the populist government. These protests in no way prove that the government has lost control. Nonetheless, the persistence of the unrest could cause problems that cannot be dismissed.
Scarcity of basic goods is already a major challenge in Venezuela, and where protesters are disrupting traffic, delivery of essentials will be further threatened. Although acts of vandalism have been widespread, they have mostly targeted subcritical government-owned assets such as vehicles, stores and regional offices. Venezuelan protesters have not yet attempted to take over government buildings. Major infrastructure disruptions have been limited to road and highway blockages, including one on the Francisco Fajardo Highway in Caracas. Most of Venezuela's energy infrastructure is located far from the major urban centers and is unlikely to be disrupted by regular protests.
Military deployments have so far been limited to San Cristobal, a city where the opposition managed to significantly disrupt commerce and transport. If the geographic spread or violence of the protests increases and the police and national guard become stretched thin, further military deployments will likely be required.
The Venezuelan government is showing signs of stress. Maduro has blamed the U.S. government for sponsoring the protests, yet he has also called on U.S. President Barack Obama to send a high-level emissary to help negotiate an end to the crisis. Such a negotiation seems unlikely, since the United States has thus far attempted to refrain from public intervention in Venezuela's internal affairs. The Catholic Church has offered to negotiate, but there has not been a sign that it will be allowed to do so.
At this point, the crisis does not seem to have reached a critical peak, though the protests seem likely to intensify going forward. In all probability, the government will not reach a breaking point until elements of Maduro's traditional support base join the protests. The fact that none of the initial issues that sparked the protests have been addressed would indicate that Venezuela will have more, not fewer, problems to deal with in the future.
Venezuelans gathered in the streets in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, Feb. 22, in the third major protest in 10 days. Demonstrations are ongoing in Caracas and throughout the country, including in San Cristobal, Valencia and Maracaibo. The list of grievances is long, but there is no single unifying theme behind the protests beyond a staunch rejection of the status quo in Venezuela. The country's leadership appears to be holding on, but it is showing signs of stress.
Analysis
The energetic Venezuelan rumor mill is filled with reports that Cuban troops have arrived in the country to help manage the protests, but such rumors are sketchy at best. Several photos of Venezuelan-owned Shaanxi Y-8 aircraft with troops offloading have been published in social media. The first such image was posted Feb. 16, and the most recent may show troop movements as recently as Feb. 21. The photos show troops carrying substantial baggage, as if prepared for a long stay. There is nothing in the photos that clearly indicates that the soldiers are Cuban as opposed to Venezuelan, but the arrival of Cubans to aid the Venezuelans would not be outside the realm of expectation. The two militaries cooperate closely, and Cuba maintains a strong interest in the stability of the Venezuelan regime.
What is clear at this point is that while the unrest is generally loosely organized, anger is widespread and intense enough to mobilize a broad swath of Venezuelans. But in a country as polarized as Venezuela, even the continuous appearance of tens of thousands of protesters is not a clear indication of widespread loss of support. The base of voters who supported the election of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in many cases have little in common with the opposition, and most have benefited in some way from the redistributive policies of the populist government. These protests in no way prove that the government has lost control. Nonetheless, the persistence of the unrest could cause problems that cannot be dismissed.
Scarcity of basic goods is already a major challenge in Venezuela, and where protesters are disrupting traffic, delivery of essentials will be further threatened. Although acts of vandalism have been widespread, they have mostly targeted subcritical government-owned assets such as vehicles, stores and regional offices. Venezuelan protesters have not yet attempted to take over government buildings. Major infrastructure disruptions have been limited to road and highway blockages, including one on the Francisco Fajardo Highway in Caracas. Most of Venezuela's energy infrastructure is located far from the major urban centers and is unlikely to be disrupted by regular protests.
Military deployments have so far been limited to San Cristobal, a city where the opposition managed to significantly disrupt commerce and transport. If the geographic spread or violence of the protests increases and the police and national guard become stretched thin, further military deployments will likely be required.
The Venezuelan government is showing signs of stress. Maduro has blamed the U.S. government for sponsoring the protests, yet he has also called on U.S. President Barack Obama to send a high-level emissary to help negotiate an end to the crisis. Such a negotiation seems unlikely, since the United States has thus far attempted to refrain from public intervention in Venezuela's internal affairs. The Catholic Church has offered to negotiate, but there has not been a sign that it will be allowed to do so.
At this point, the crisis does not seem to have reached a critical peak, though the protests seem likely to intensify going forward. In all probability, the government will not reach a breaking point until elements of Maduro's traditional support base join the protests. The fact that none of the initial issues that sparked the protests have been addressed would indicate that Venezuela will have more, not fewer, problems to deal with in the future.
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