Al Shabaab's Adaptability

Somali militant group al Shabaab has been able to survive because of its tactical capabilities and adaptability. Recently it has been more active in the capital of Mogadishu; on Feb. 21, militants attacked the Villa Somalia compound, which is home to the presidential compound and, as such, is one of the city's most secure locations. The attack gave rise to renewed concern about the group's activities. Unless security forces conduct a more effective counterinsurgency, the increased al Shabaab presence in Mogadishu may cause continued attrition that could allow the group to re-establish a foothold in the capital.

The Villa Somalia attack follows the tactics al Shabaab militants used in their assaults on the Mogadishu courthouse in April 2013 and the U.N. compound in June 2013. These attacks combined the destructive power of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and suicide commandos.

Outside of the capital, Somali and African Union forces have held territory around Beledweyne, Baidoa and Kismayo, but al Shabaab activity continues to disrupt the supply lines between them. Without reliable access to Kismayo, al Shabaab has begun using the interior north-south corridor stretching from Bosaso in Puntland to Baardheere in southern Somalia as its main route for linking up with supplies coming from affiliated groups in Yemen and elsewhere. Al Shabaab continues to hold on to territory in the population centers of Baardheere and Buurdhuubo along the Juba River, as well as Jilib and Baraawe along the coastline. The militant organization has also maintained freedom of operation in large areas of southern and central Somalia where there is no African Union peacekeeper presence and, reportedly, al Shabaab has even been expanding its stronghold in the Cal Madow Mountains of Puntland to the north.

Al Shabaab's continued ability to stage attacks throughout the country and its increased activity in Mogadishu highlight the group's resilience. Within its adaptive strategy, the recent increased activity in Mogadishu in particular highlights the potential of a resurgence of al Shabaab as a threat to government control within the capital.

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