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Colombia's Elections Increase the Chances of a Peace Deal



A Colombian woman votes at a polling station in Toribio, Cauca department, on March 9. (LUIS ROBAYO/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary


The results of the March 9 legislative elections in Colombia have reduced the likelihood of congressional opposition to any eventual peace deal between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia rebel group. The coalition led by President Juan Manuel Santos leads the vote tally for seats in both houses of Congress. The results will make it difficult for Colombia's conservative opposition, led by former president Alvaro Uribe, to derail any peace deal Santos brings to the legislature for approval.

Analysis


Santos' political coalition -- composed of the Social Party of National Unity, the Colombian Liberal Party and the Radical Change party -- secured 47 of the 102 seats in the upper house of the legislature. Uribe's conservative Democratic Center and the Colombian Conservative Party took 19 seats each. Santos' coalition achieved a greater majority in the lower house, with at least 92 of 165 seats. The leftist Alternative Democratic Pole and the minority Green Party both obtained 5 seats. Both of these parties would likely support a deal with the rebels.

The political coalition led by Santos emerged from the elections with a commanding legislative lead. However, its majority in the Senate may decrease if Democratic Center, Colombia's main opposition party, and the Colombian Conservative Party decide to ally themselves in a second round of presidential voting. However, the Conservative Party is internally divided, making an alliance difficult. Even with an alliance, Colombia's conservative opposition would find it virtually impossible to affect any eventual peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known by the Spanish acronym FARC, through legislative means. The two conservative parties simply do not have the votes necessary to derail a referendum on a peace deal with the FARC.

The Colombian government intends to legitimize any eventual peace deals with the FARC and the National Liberation Army, also known as the ELN, by submitting the agreements to approval by popular referendum. If the government uses a referendum, any deal with the rebels would be submitted to a nationwide popular vote requiring the participation of at least 25 percent of the electorate. Prior to any vote, the referendum requires approval by a majority of all members of both houses of Congress. While the exact legal mechanisms for crafting and implementing the referendum are not yet decided, nearly 70 percent of the Colombian public favors a peace deal.





Colombia's Geographic Challenge



The exact date of the referendum depends on the status of government talks with the FARC and the ELN. Both sides remain locked in discussion over five main points in the peace negotiations. The government and the FARC have been discussing the third point, a resolution to the militants' involvement in drug trafficking, since mid-November. The remaining two points, the demobilization of the FARC and compensation for its victims, remain up for discussion. The government and the rebels have been careful to not publicly release major details of the conversations. A March 8 statement by a Colombian conservative politician indicated that the government is simultaneously holding talks with the ELN in Quito, Ecuador. Neither the government nor the rebels are expected to walk away from the negotiations at this point. Regardless of when the peace deals move to a public and congressional vote, the conservatives can do little to hamper their approval.

Uribe has been a staunch opponent of the peace talks since they began in September 2012. However, he has been unable to sway a significant number of legislators to his side since Democratic Center split from the Social Party of National Unity in 2012. Uribe's last gamble will be an alliance with the Colombian Conservative Party in the second round of voting. With only 26 percent of Colombian voters backing Santos, a second round seems likely. Despite contact between Uribe allies and the Conservative Party, an alliance remains uncertain. Both parties lag behind the ruling coalition. Even if Uribe's supporters and the Conservative Party join forces in Congress, Santos' command of the legislature raises the likelihood of a peace deal passing.

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