National Front leader Marine Le Pen salutes her supporters in Tours, France. (Patrick Durand/Getty Images)
Summary
The ongoing economic crisis in the eurozone is increasingly affecting France's internal politics. The country will hold two elections in the coming months: nationwide municipal elections March 23 and March 30 followed by EU Parliament elections May 25. In both votes, the Socialist government will likely lose ground to the opposition center-right Union for a Popular Movement and, more important, to the nationalist and Euroskeptical National Front. Although the French electoral system will prevent the National Front from taking over a large number of town halls and city councils, the elections will show the public's rising discontent with France's political elites. Even moderate gains will increase the far right's ability to influence the agenda of mainstream parties and gain legitimacy among voters. In the short term, Paris is unlikely to waver on its path to greater EU integration, but over time the consolidation of nationalist and Euroskeptical forces could lead France to reassess its future role in the European Union.
Analysis
France's two-round electoral system was designed to generate stable governments and prevent fringe parties from rising to power. Because of this, candidates from the ruling Socialist party and the opposition Union for a Popular Movement are likely to win most of the mayoral and city council elections. This will limit the impact of what will probably be a record performance by the National Front. The party, led by Marine Le Pen, has a better chance of substantial gains in the EU Parliament elections, which use a proportional representation system that allocates seats according to the number of votes received.
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The upcoming electoral season will be important because it will consolidate the role of the National Front as a significant political force in France. The party was founded in 1972, but its negative image among voters often prevented it from making significant electoral gains. However, the European economic crisis has changed France and, by extension, the role of the National Front in domestic politics. The French economy managed to avoid recession in the early stages of the crisis, which centered primarily on countries in Southern Europe. Over time, however, the crisis spread north to France, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries. The downturn highlighted the weaknesses in the French economic system as Paris proved unable to apply the substantial reforms needed to boost economic competitiveness and generate substantial growth. As the French economy slowed, anti-establishment sentiment grew. Discredited, President Nicolas Sarkozy was replaced in 2012 by Socialist President Francois Hollande, who has turned out to be even less popular.
Amid the reshuffle of France's mainstream political elite, the National Front re-evaluated its strategy. Party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen retired in early 2011 and his daughter, Marine Le Pen, became the party's new leader. Marine Le Pen purged the party of its most extreme members and softened its rhetoric. The National Front's core agenda remained in place, however, centered on a rejection of the European Union, criticism of French ruling elites and advocacy of anti-immigrant policies. The party's renewed image, as well as the new political and economic environment, made it more acceptable to the French public.
The National Front appeals to several latent trends in French society. The most substantial of these is a growing sense of public disappointment with the country's mainstream political parties. This explains why the National Front is still primarily a protest party. Some voters share the party's anti-immigration and anti-European sentiments, but most consider support for the National Front as a way to punish the traditional elites. This attitude will likely lead to a decrease in voter turnout, as apathy toward the entire political process spreads.
The rise of the National Front also reveals public frustration with the country's apparent lack of direction and inability to adapt to the new economic environment. The eurozone crisis not only revealed France's economic shortcomings but also underscored the strengths of the German economy. The Franco-German alliance is the main pillar of the European Union, but the crisis has left the Germans better off than the French. For the first several decades of the European project, France was the main political, military and economic power on the Continent. Germany was weak and divided. This remained true in the decade after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when Germany bore the economic burden of reunification and was dubbed "the sick man of Europe."
With the creation of the eurozone, France was still confident that it would remain the main actor on the Continent and that the common currency would keep Germany under French supervision. The eurozone crisis altered this balance. Before the crisis began, Germany managed to absorb the costs of reunification and institute a series of painful economic reforms, leading to its emergence as the largest economy and most prominent political power in Europe. It was Berlin, not Paris, that largely defined the European reaction to the economic crisis and hosted negotiations on reforms, bailouts and debt.
As France's influence waned, the National Front's rhetoric began to appeal to a growing number of voters. While French leadership remains committed to a process of EU integration that for a growing number of French voters does not seem to be working out as promised, the National Front proposes ousting elites and cutting ties with the European Union.
Constraints and Opportunities for the Far Right
The National Front still has to overcome substantial disadvantages. The first is France's electoral system. Although Marine Le Pen's popularity won her 17.9 percent of the vote in the 2012 presidential election, her party holds only two seats in the National Assembly and a handful of posts in France's regional councils. The party has yet to gain enough support to win second-round municipal and National Assembly elections.
The second constraint is linked to the party's internal structure. For the municipal elections, the National Front will present three times more candidates than in the most recent election in 2008, but it lacks the size and resources of its mainstream rivals. Because of this, it will not put forward candidates for many of the municipal councils of France's roughly 36,700 communes.
As the National Front gains positions in government, it will also face the difficulty of moving from opposition to the responsibilities of governance. The party's victories will mean that it will have to make unpopular decisions and compromises that often lead to splits within protest parties. The National Front will have to overcome this substantial obstacle if and when it gains power at the municipal or national level.
Future Ramifications
The main long-term consequence of the upcoming electoral season will be the consolidation of the nationalists and Euroskeptics as acceptable political actors. France has a long history of nationalism, but after World War II nationalist sentiment was considered a dangerous ideology. One of the main goals of the European Union was to foster a European identity that would suppress the dangers of nationalism.
The eurozone crisis changed this, presenting a massive challenge for moderate pro-European parties and boosting support for their opponents. This resulting political transformation has already hindered the process of European integration as more member states resist the loss of national sovereignty and reject key EU elements, such as the free movement of people.
According to recent opinion polls, a growing number of French citizens have lost faith in the European project. Some even support exiting the eurozone and returning to the franc. The current administration in Paris is well aware of this growing gap between voters and political elites. In the wake of elections, the government will work to reverse the country's economic downturn before Euroskeptic sentiment becomes too strong to be contained. This will mean a renewed focus on economic policy and a potential Cabinet reshuffle to regain the initiative. But the more the public sees the government as ineffective, the more difficult it will be for it to negotiate with members of the ruling party, the opposition, unions and business leaders. A significant defeat in the elections would make it harder for Hollande to apply his "responsibility pact," which involves spending cuts in the public sector and tax breaks for companies hiring new workers. Mainstream parties will also be forced to adapt and respond to elements in the National Front's agenda.
In the near term, Paris is unlikely to substantially modify its pro-integration agenda. Over time, however, Euroskepticism could offer a substantial challenge to these plans. Anti-integration ideology is gaining ground elsewhere in Europe, and the real challenge to the European Union will come not from its periphery but from its political core. This electoral season will not bring about substantial changes to the European Union, but could set the foundation for a process of electoral growth by nationalist forces, which would eventually challenge the survival of the European Union in its current form.
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