Skip to main content

Serbia Will Be Caught Up in Russia-West Standoff



Serbian Progressive Party leader Aleksandar Vucic casts his ballot in Belgrade on March 16. (ANDREJ ISAKOVIC/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary


Serbia will soon have a new party leading its government, but there will not be any drastic changes to its policies or improvements in its chances of joining the European Union. Serbia's continued refusal to recognize Kosovo's independence and the new party's efforts to consolidate power will not sit well with Brussels. At the same time, larger issues such as the standoff between Russia and the West and Europe's own structural crisis will add uncertainty to Belgrade's bid for EU membership. Before the new government's term expires, Serbia will probably be less interested in joining the European Union.

Analysis


The Serbian Progressive Party won about 49 percent of the vote in the March 16 parliamentary elections, translating into an absolute majority in the parliament because of the threshold required for parties to win seats. Often known by its Serbian abbreviation, SNS, the Serbian Progressive Party is expected to get 158 of 250 seats.

Already the largest party in the parliament, SNS' victory was expected. In fact, it was SNS that called for early elections to capitalize on its high popularity. Serbians were growing tired of the reign of the Democratic Party, which ruled until SNS and the Socialist Party formed a coalition government after the 2012 elections. As part of that agreement, SNS had to grant the post of prime minister to the Socialists.

SNS will no longer need other parties to form a government, but its leader, current Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, will probably seek a coalition partner anyway. Vucic will want to secure broad support as he works to implement economic reforms and as he prepares to continue negotiations to join the European Union.

Click to Enlarge


SNS' domination of Serbian politics will likely complicate those negotiations. Similar to the way Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has acted since gaining a two-thirds majority in the parliament, Vucic will probably use his party's majority to try to cement SNS' position, along the way implementing policies that Brussels will not support. The European Union will demand that Serbia commit to political and legislative reforms that would hinder Vucic's consolidation of power, including pressuring Belgrade to privatize numerous state companies -- a demand that SNS will be especially reluctant to accept now that it controls the Serbian government and thus also the large public sector.

Serbia still does not recognize Kosovo's independence, but over the past year it has made concessions, such as supporting local elections in northern Kosovo called for by Pristina, in return for the start of formal negotiations on entering the European Union. Belgrade hopes that stronger political and economic integration with the rest of Europe will lead to domestic prosperity. However, with Europe facing a structural economic crisis and demands for painful economic reforms still to come, negotiations will be drawn out and the Serbian public will grow more and more skeptical of the benefits of EU membership.

Another factor in the negotiations will be Serbia's strong ties to Russia. Serbia must factor in its free trade agreement with Russia, loans from Russia and the construction of the South Stream natural gas pipeline through Serbia as it negotiates closer ties with the West. Russia opposes Serbian integration with the European Union, and as the economic crisis in Europe persists, economic ties with Russia will be of special importance, likely undermining membership negotiations as they progress.

Serbia is also one of the countries that will become a focal point for Russia and the West as their confrontation over Ukraine extends to other peripheral countries. With pressure from Russian and European powers likely to come down on Serbia, the next Serbian government is in for some turbulent times.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif