Tunisia After the Arab Spring

International focus on North Africa intensified after the Arab Spring. The sweeping unrest that unfolded in 2011 affected much of the Middle East, albeit to varying degrees, but its epicenter was Tunisia. North Africa experienced the greatest unrest in the months and years following the ouster of sitting governments in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The Arab Spring began with Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation in Tunisia in December 2010 to protest what has since been described as humiliating economic and political conditions. Following Bouazizi's death on Jan. 4, 2011, Tunisians began a massive, peaceful protest and public campaign to oust longtime President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali from office.

Militant activity and public unrest will remain the biggest challenges to Tunisia's upcoming permanent government, with national elections expected before 2015. Both issues will be aggravated by the ongoing economic downturn as Tunis struggles to reassure foreign (mainly Western) tourists and investors that the country is safe, stable and ready for business, as it was during Ben Ali's tenure. Associated unemployment and a slow expansion of economic activity will continue to undermine the new government's popularity, although as seen in 2012 security issues will continue to vex the Tunisian public. Algerian political and security cooperation will help stabilize and manage some of Tunis' political and security pressures, and overall the risk of social unrest should be manageable.

However, the future government will have to contend with the high expectations and aspirations of an electorate that has grown weary after more than three years without a permanent government. This means that protests, unrest and clashes with police likely are part of Tunisia's immediate future. Meaningful economic growth will continue to lag behind public expectations, with a few years of permanent governance necessary for tourism sector revenues and foreign investment to reach anything near their pre-2011 levels. Also, Libya's continuing destabilization will affect Tunisian security. Cooperation with the United States and Algeria will become a more effective bulwark against this threat, though the occasional militant attack -- whether attempted or successful -- will become part of Tunisia's post-Arab Spring reality.

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