Former Kremlin Advisor Gives Russia's View Of The Crisis In Ukraine

By ABC

Obviously if there is bloodshed in the east, I think that president Putin will be forced to take some sort of measures. I think that what people don't understand in the West is that there are strong feelings running in Russia.

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 "ABC" - CHRIS UHLMANN: Western governments say Russia is orchestrating the violence in Ukraine.

As you would expect, the view on this crisis is very different in Russia. In a phone call, president Vladimir Putin told his US counterpart Barack Obama that the speculation was unfounded.

So to get a Russian view of the crisis, I spoke with Alexander Nekrassov, who is a former adviser to the Kremlin.

Alexander Nekrassov, the West is saying that Russian soldiers are behind the unrest in eastern Ukraine. Is that correct?

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: The Russian government has already indicated several times - and very recently foreign minister Lavrov said - that Russia has no presence in eastern Ukraine at all - neither soldiers, nor special agents, or mercenaries or whatever.

So the main to thing to understand about this crisis is that both the West and Russia cannot afford to have another Cold War. It is very expensive to wage a cold war. A hot war is even more expensive, but a cold war is very expensive.

Second point, it's very expensive and not desirable at all for Russia to move its troops into eastern Ukraine, simply because - and Americans have learned it the hard way in Iraq and in Afghanistan - it is, again, very expensive to invade other countries because you not only need to pay for the upkeep of your troops, but you need to actually support the local population.

So that is why for Russia, the worst kind of scenario would be if Ukraine slips into civil war, like we're seeing now, and Russia will have to act to protect the ethnic Russians in the east. That is the worst case scenario for Putin and the Kremlin.

CHRIS UHLMANN: And some in the West would say that that's the pretext that Russia wants to act in the east.

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: Well, the commentators in the West make very strange comments. What is the point for Russia to inflame tension in its neighbouring country and provoke violence and a possible civil war when it's already flagged on its own interests at once - and that is why I usually reject out completely such statements as that Russia's involved in this particular crisis.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Well, if Ukraine does act against the people that it calls terrorists who are now occupying these government buildings, and there is violence in the east, can you see a situation where Russia would intervene?

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: Well, obviously if there is bloodshed in the east, I think that president Putin will be forced to take some sort of measures. I think that what people don't understand in the West is that there are strong feelings running in Russia.

Ukraine is not some distant country. Ukraine is a country which has centuries' long links - cultural, political, family links - so Russia just can't stay idle if something happens in Ukraine.

So even if president Putin says that he is not going to use any sort of means, including sending soldiers in Ukraine- to Ukraine, if there's bloodshed, I can tell you he might not be able to control the situation. Because there will be volunteers who will simply cross the border and fight on the side of the Ukrainians- uh, ethnic Russians.

So, this is a very, very dangerous situation.

CHRIS UHLMANN: What is the West to make of statements like the one that President Putin made that he wants to see essentially a rebuilding of the former Soviet Union?

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: Well, President Putin never said that he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union, simply because it's impossible. There's no way the Soviet Union can re-emerge again…

CHRIS UHLMANN: Does he imagine a larger Russia than the Russia that he has now?

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: Because his words were taken out of context and were used afterwards by some Western politicians to claim that Putin is planning to invade the Baltics, Poland and other countries were mentioned.

Russia does not have the muscle, the military muscle and the finances to create an empire. Now, there's another problem to this crisis, another side. It concerns the economic situation in the European Union and America.

Now, if you look at the G7 countries, they are all insolvent. They are all bankrupt. Their total debt is about $30 trillion and growing. And of course we understand that when countries are in a desperate economic situation and they don't really know what to do with it, they try to stage all sorts of spectacular foreign policy stunts, which we are witnessing now.

Now America is facing default in two years time, and America is very aggressive across the world and in Europe as well. Now, the cynics in Russia are saying that America needs a big war. I think that the best possible way to solve this situation is for everyone to take a step back, because all this rhetoric does not help, all this aggressive rhetoric does not help anyone.

There have to be talks, and I would advise - and I actually did pass this message to the interim regime through a delegation of Ukrainians who've been here in London. As a former Kremlin advisor, I suggest to them to actually cancel the elections in May and to create a unity government - because there is no unity government in Kiev at the moment; it's a one-sided government - and to start talks with the eastern regions on autonomy.

This will immediately deescalate the situation and that's the only way out at the moment. There is no other way. If they use force, this is civil war.

CHRIS UHLMANN: How likely is it, do you believe, that there could be a misstep?

ALEXANDER NEKRASSOV: I think there's always a possibility that somebody may make a mistake. Now the beauty of the situation of course is that we won't have a war, ever. Because there are nuclear weapons, and that's why I was always against people who are calling for a nuclear free world.

These nuclear weapons, they protect us from any serious conflict in Europe. There might be a regional war, yes. That's not a good idea as well. So the best bet would be that no mistakes are made by anyone and that there is a diplomatic and political process going on, and I really, really hope that the government in Kiev, the interim government, listens to sound advice and not to the advice of people who are members of some NeoNazi groups who are an ultranationalist, who want a great Ukraine at the expense of Russia.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Alexander Nekrassov, a former adviser to the Kremlin.