That the U.S. government manipulates social media as a part of its counterintelligence campaigns should surprise no one. However, allegations that emerged April 3 about a Cuban social media program funded by the U.S. Administration for International Development provide insight into the tactics Washington uses.
The Cuban government restricts public access to global communications. To circumvent the challenges of influencing a population isolated from the Internet, USAID partnered with a private contractor, Creative Associates International, to create a platform for sharing social information via text message. The ultimate goal, according to the report, was to slowly introduce anti-government political messaging to the service, called ZunZuneo, in an effort to generate momentum for public unrest outside of the mainstream Cuban democracy groups, which are largely ineffective. At its height, it managed to reach tens of thousands of Cubans sharing text messages with one another, in addition to messages planted by Creative Associates International and its partners.
Although the ZunZuneo effort collapsed -- apparently because of administrative challenges -- the broad outline of the effort is consistent with previous claims that have been made against the U.S. government and its sympathizers. One of the ultimate challenges facing governments throughout the world is how to handle the issues associated with ever-expanding communications networks. How governments handle them affects bilateral relations, as was the case in the Snowden affair, as well as the more nebulous world of propaganda.
Every government has its tried and true propaganda outlets, but the rise of social media has presented an opportunity for anonymous individuals, governments and even private companies to influence the global political conversation.
Social media is particularly powerful in shaping the dialogue of the global media elite. And while this dialogue is frequently confused for the actual opinions of the global public, it is much more isolated from street-level opinions than might be initially apparent. In many cases -- as in the so-called 2009 Green Revolution in Iran -- a social media campaign trumpeting change is much more effective at convincing international media that a revolution is coming than it is at actually generating political change. Frequently, social media is most effective at influencing the elite and middle classes of countries. In Venezuela, for example, the recent protests have largely been mobilized and reported through social media, given government controls on local media, but mostly they have served only to bring Venezuela's middle and upper classes into friendly geographic zones
These examples demonstrate that governments have lost some control of the messaging surrounding social issues and popular support. But real change happens when leaders lose legitimacy more broadly from powerful groups. For example, it was the Egyptian military's abandoning Hosni Mubarak that ultimately led him to step down. And in Ukraine, where social media may have been helpful in driving support for protests in central Kiev, it was ultimately the involvement of armed right-wing nationalists that forced former President Viktor Yanukovich to flee the country.
For its part, Cuba is not ready for another revolution, as has been demonstrated by the failure of decades of U.S. counterintelligence and covert operations designed to undermine the governments of Fidel and Raul Castro. The ultimate outcome of Thursday's revelations will likely be to stoke public concerns globally about U.S. interference in social media messaging. For Russia, this is particularly conveniently timed; Moscow has been pushing the line of U.S. interference in other countries' domestic uprisings since the mass protests in Moscow in 2011-2012 and in the more recent uprising in Kiev. The recent leaks of U.S. meddling via social media can help Moscow's next objective of discrediting the February overthrow of the government in Kiev.
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