Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (R) speaks with his counterparts from Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (C), and France, Laurent Fabius, in Weimar, Germany, on April 1. (JENS SCHLUETER/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
Russia's recent actions in Crimea and subsequent military buildup around the former Soviet periphery are yet another reminder of the security threat that Russia poses to Poland. After a NATO summit on April 1 to discuss responses to Russia's maneuvers, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called NATO's presence in Poland and the pace at which it is being increased "unsatisfactory." Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski went further, calling for NATO to station 10,000 troops in Poland. But Warsaw faces the same constraints it has long experienced in getting the support from NATO to counter the Russian threat, not least of which is a fundamental disagreement among NATO members over how to respond to Russia.
Analysis
The latest NATO summit was the first since Russia formally annexed Crimea on March 21. During the summit, NATO condemned Russia's intervention in Crimea and announced the suspension of all practical cooperation between the military bloc and Russia. In a statement after the summit, NATO said it would deepen cooperation with its partners in Eastern Europe and that it remained "open to new members in the future."
The Poles essentially see this response as an empty gesture. In keeping with its geopolitical imperatives, Poland has been looking for strong moves from NATO and especially the United States in response to what it sees as blatant Russian aggression in its immediate neighborhood. In concrete terms, Warsaw wants a greater military presence from the bloc on Polish territory.
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This is a request that Poland has long made of NATO and the United States, but one that has gone unfulfilled for several reasons. One reason was the U.S. military's focus on and commitments in the Middle East and southwest Asia. Another was U.S. military spending cuts and general retrenchment, as well as Europe's own military spending cuts driven largely by the financial crisis. Few members of NATO have shown the willingness to invest the time, money and manpower into the bloc to the degree needed to reassure Poland against what many had considered an abstract, faraway threat. After Russia's moves in Ukraine and buildup of forces in Transdniestria and Belarus, however, Poland is hoping NATO and the United States might finally see the need for a greater security presence in the region.
There have been some indications that Poland's requests have been getting more attention, most notably in U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Poland and the Baltic states. During his stop in Warsaw on March 18, Biden said Washington would increase the scope of its training missions of F-16 fighter jets in Poland. Biden also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to deploy elements of the ballistic missile defense system in Poland by 2018.
This has not been enough to assuage Poland's more immediate fears of Russia. As Tusk's and Sikorski's recent comments show, Poland is looking for a more rapid buildup of U.S. and NATO involvement in the country, and more important, is looking for a large and permanent presence of forces there.
It is unlikely, however, that Poland's wishes will be realized. Not everyone in NATO shares Poland's sense of urgency when it comes to Russia. Some in the alliance, including Germany, still believe that committing more troops to Poland would only strain ties with Russia further. The Germans are thus more interested in a negotiated solution to the Ukraine crisis rather than approving a substantial number of NATO troops in Poland.
Furthermore, following the intensification of the standoff between Russia and the West over events in Crimea, Moscow and Washington have since pulled back and have entered a diplomatic phase of the conflict. U.S. statements that Ukraine and Georgia are not going to enter NATO and Russian statements that no further military action is planned in Ukraine are indications that the standoff has for now cooled and that the two sides are aware enough of their respective constraints to step down their threats. Just as Russia does not want to engage in military moves that will sap its resources, the United States does not want Russia to make a military move to which it cannot effectively respond. Deploying a large and permanent contingent of troops in Poland would obviously upset this period of negotiations and risk enflaming other pressure points on the Russian periphery. Therefore, Washington is unlikely to jeopardize the talks with a move as significant as granting Warsaw's request.
Yet there are still a number of things that could derail the talks between Russia and the United States. Russia and the West are still at odds over Ukraine's political structure, as well as plans for Moldova and Georgia to push for EU integration in the same way the new Ukrainian government has. Further Russian activity, be it in the political, economic or security sphere, could lead to greater U.S. security cooperation with not only Poland but also the Baltic states and Romania. But even this would not likely result in the kind of military presence that Poland seeks, leaving Warsaw in a tenuous security position and short of its needs and expectations to counter the lasting threat from Russia.
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